Do I ship it?

Games › Local Multiplayer › Local Multiplayer + Match 3

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Local Multiplayer Match 3?

Local Multiplayer + Match 3

Only 14 developers shipped a Local Multiplayer Match 3 in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Lumines Arise, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×2142 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 17 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 17 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Local Multiplayer + Match 3
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $358 → $2.7k → $1.1k → $359 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Local Multiplayer + Match 3: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,599)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,017,346)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 51
Announced 17
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Local Multiplayer, Match 3
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 922 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $600, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 17 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Local Multiplayer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + HockeyStrong odds11 devs · median $3.0k · 12 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair61 devs · median $5.8k · 64 announced
  3. + Action RPGFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  4. + Hex GridFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  5. + ModernFair24 devs · median $3.6k · 16 announced
  6. + WargameFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  7. + TennisFair18 devs · median $2.3k · 10 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair14 devs · median $2.0k · 8 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair26 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  10. + Football (American)Fair13 devs · median $1.8k · 4 announced
  11. + SportsFair196 devs · median $1.6k · 208 announced
  12. + RunnerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced

All 174 pairs on the Local Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Lumines Arise 2025 · $1.0M Battle Chef Brigade Deluxe 2017 · $974k Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes - Definitive Edition 2023 · $234k Tumblestone 2016 · $131k Critter Crunch 2012 · $58k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lumines Arise $39.99 848 94% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,017,346) Enhance, Monstars Inc.
Battle Chef Brigade Deluxe older $19.99 1,624 95% 49k $974k (exactly $973,913) Trinket Studios
Might & Magic: Clash of Heroes - Definitive Edition older $17.99 434 80% 13k $234k (exactly $234,230) Dotemu, Capybara Games
Tumblestone older $24.99 175 88% 5.3k $131k (exactly $131,198) Ty Taylor, Spotted Zebra, Justin Nafzig… (Ty Taylor, Spotted Zebra, Justin Nafziger, Vega Castañeda)
Critter Crunch older $6.99 276 94% 8.3k $58k (exactly $57,877) Capybara Games
Merge & Blade older $9.99 121 76% 3.6k $36k (exactly $36,264) Magic Cube
Rainbow Reactor older $14.99 71 94% 2.1k $32k (exactly $31,929) Tunermaxx Media GmbH, Muikkumedia Oy
CrossOver: Roll For Initiative older $9.99 52 80% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,584) Gaterooze, Ink, MicroProse Software
Tidalis older $4.99 104 68% 3.1k $16k (exactly $15,569) Arcen Games
Flipon older $3.99 125 92% 3.8k $15k (exactly $14,962) Pixelnest Studio
Times Trials $11.99 20 100% 600 $7.2k (exactly $7,194) Arc-Fy
Ruku's Heart Balloon $8.99 14 100% 420 $3.8k (exactly $3,776) RucKyGAMES
100 in 1 Game Collection $29.99 4 75% 120 $3.6k (exactly $3,599) Digital Bards
Towers Saga $12.99 4 100% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) Wise Up Games
AD BLOCKER: An Action Puzzle Game $5.99 6 100% 180 $1.1k (exactly $1,078) The AD BLOCKER Team
Day and Night $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Ridiculous Games
Morphing Blocks $0.99 17 100% 510 $505 (exactly $505) J. TAO
Mineshaft · EA $7.99 2 50% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Z Sculpt Entertainment
Puzzle Milk Tea $3.99 3 100% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Sunday Brunch Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.