Do I ship it?

GamesInteractive FictionInteractive Fiction + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Interactive Fiction?

Interactive Fiction + Underground

Only 12 developers shipped an Underground Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Techno Banter, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×1.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $60k, ×128 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 23 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 23 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Interactive Fiction + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.1k → $299 → $539 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Interactive Fiction + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $5.7k (exactly $5,741)
Top 5% $61k (exactly $60,986)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 34
Announced 23
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Interactive Fiction
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 89% positive over 232 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $540, 1 in 4 over $5.7k, 1 in 20 over $60k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Interactive Fiction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair164 devs · median $36k · 162 announced
  2. + Match 3Fair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair41 devs · median $1.8k · 52 announced
  4. + SportsFair19 devs · median $1.5k · 19 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair160 devs · median $1.4k · 144 announced
  6. + PiratesFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  7. + DrivingFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  8. + DiplomacyFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  9. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  10. + Board GameFair9 devs · median $657 · 12 announced
  11. + SnowFair10 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  12. + BuildingFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Interactive Fiction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Meg's Monster older $14.99 1,173 96% 35k $527k (exactly $527,498) Odencat
Techno Banter $17.99 113 91% 3.4k $61k (exactly $60,986) Dexai Arts, Crunching Koalas
Fleshcult older $4.99 190 79% 5.7k $28k (exactly $28,443) Oneirolith
Slasher U: An 18+ Horror Movie Dating Sim, Act 1 older $14.99 41 90% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Andi Santagata
I live under your house. older $1.99 305 80% 9.2k $18k (exactly $18,208) SpoocleMacBoogle
DeMagnete VR older $19.99 22 81% 660 $13k (exactly $13,193) BitCake Studio
Thaw $8.99 25 100% 750 $6.7k (exactly $6,742) paochanz
It Sleeps Below the Haar older $7.99 28 85% 840 $6.7k (exactly $6,712) Arboreta Games
VSCS-II older $9.99 22 90% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) Oliver Morrish
You Can Save Everyone older $5.99 34 88% 1.0k $6.1k (exactly $6,110) Caleb Draper
Death Sees Twice: Spot the Difference $2.99 64 81% 1.9k $5.7k (exactly $5,741) hirohasu
The Land of Rest 1 $8.99 18 100% 540 $4.9k (exactly $4,855) 弓茶
Vaulted Valor $14.99 3 33% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,349) Vast Games
Bael's Rock: A Text Adventure $5.99 3 100% 90 $539 (exactly $539) GameClicks
Fugue of Delights $5.99 3 100% 90 $539 (exactly $539) Enygmage
Chronos Experiment $4.99 2 0% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Magnaro
Desecration $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Cozy Crow Studios
Temple of Egmelitia $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Ian Hornik

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.