Do I ship it?

GamesInteractive FictionInteractive Fiction + Transhumanism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Transhumanist Interactive Fiction?

Interactive Fiction + Transhumanism

Of 34 developers who shipped a Transhumanist Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $800, ×1.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $21k, ×45 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 46 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 46 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Interactive Fiction + Transhumanism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $17k → $1.0k → $802 → $599 → $2.4k → $0 (still earning) → $7.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Interactive Fiction + Transhumanism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $802 (exactly $802)
Top 25% $5.2k (exactly $5,242)
Top 5% $21k (exactly $21,279)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 71
Announced 46
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
Transhumanism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Interactive Fiction; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Choices Matter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Lore-Rich, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 457 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $800, 1 in 4 over $5.2k, 1 in 20 over $21k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Interactive Fiction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair164 devs · median $36k · 162 announced
  2. + Match 3Fair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair41 devs · median $1.8k · 52 announced
  4. + SportsFair19 devs · median $1.5k · 19 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair160 devs · median $1.4k · 144 announced
  6. + PiratesFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  7. + DrivingFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  8. + DiplomacyFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  9. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  10. + Board GameFair9 devs · median $657 · 12 announced
  11. + SnowFair10 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  12. + BuildingFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Interactive Fiction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Nobody Wants to Die older $24.99 5,818 83% 175k $4.4M (exactly $4,361,755) Critical Hit Games
State of Mind older $19.99 1,548 76% 46k $928k (exactly $928,336) Daedalic Entertainment
Lightracer Spark older $12.99 970 83% 29k $378k (exactly $378,009) Smartmelon Games
Ceiba older $6.99 255 94% 7.7k $53k (exactly $53,474) Wirion, 7DOTS
Mars Vice $24.99 70 97% 2.1k $52k (exactly $52,479) Rho Labyrinths GmbH
Vampire: The Masquerade — Sins of the Sires older $11.99 143 39% 4.3k $51k (exactly $51,437) Choice of Games
World for Two older $13.99 58 77% 1.7k $24k (exactly $24,343) Seventh rank
how to kill a fly [ H2KAF ] $9.99 71 97% 2.1k $21k (exactly $21,279) Radtel Collective
DATING OF THE FUTURE $15.99 43 90% 1.3k $21k (exactly $20,627) geoWaffle
Acolyte older $10.99 55 74% 1.7k $18k (exactly $18,134) Superstring
Veins Like Tapeworms $19.99 20 95% 600 $12k (exactly $11,994) AwesomeTrinket
The Queen of Phalli $9.99 39 87% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,688) Labor of Love
Alter Evo $14.99 23 95% 690 $10k (exactly $10,343) Technical Fiction
Project Looking Glass $4.99 47 100% 1.4k $7.0k (exactly $7,036) MORPH
Imago Season $9.50 19 89% 570 $5.4k (exactly $5,415) Lunar Finch
Runway 66 $6.99 25 88% 750 $5.2k (exactly $5,242) NEBULA NOVA GAMES
黄色猫片 $0.99 100 91% 3.0k $3.0k (exactly $2,970) Basement Games, 86岁按时吃饭

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.