Do I ship it?

GamesInteractive FictionInteractive Fiction + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Interactive Fiction?

Interactive Fiction + Nature

Of 59 developers who shipped a Nature Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 132 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×458 the market median. Revenue is up 200% on the market; 132 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 200% on the market, 132 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Interactive Fiction + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 59
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.0k → $533 → $1.4k → $2.4k → $598 → $2.0k → $1.1k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Interactive Fiction + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 59
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $3.8k (exactly $3,775)
Top 5% $217k (exactly $217,453)
Developers, 2 yr 59
Released games 179
Announced 132
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 200% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Interactive Fiction; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Visual Novel
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 7,398 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $3.7k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 48 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 132 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Interactive Fiction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair164 devs · median $36k · 162 announced
  2. + Match 3Fair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair41 devs · median $1.8k · 52 announced
  4. + SportsFair19 devs · median $1.5k · 19 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair160 devs · median $1.4k · 144 announced
  6. + PiratesFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  7. + DrivingFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  8. + DiplomacyFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  9. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  10. + Board GameFair9 devs · median $657 · 12 announced
  11. + SnowFair10 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  12. + BuildingFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Interactive Fiction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lost Records: Bloom & Rage $39.99 5,873 86% 176k $7.0M (exactly $7,045,838) DON'T NOD
Shelter 2 older $24.99 3,378 87% 101k $2.5M (exactly $2,532,487) Might and Delight
SEASON: A letter to the future older $24.99 1,832 93% 55k $1.4M (exactly $1,373,450) Scavengers Studio
Green Hell VR older $19.99 1,143 57% 34k $685k (exactly $685,457) Incuvo
Mutazione older $19.99 1,123 95% 34k $673k (exactly $673,463) Die Gute Fabrik
Amerzone - The Explorer's Legacy $39.99 526 90% 16k $631k (exactly $631,042) Microids Studio Paris
Kona II: Brume older $29.99 433 80% 13k $390k (exactly $389,570) Parabole
Paradise older $19.99 561 90% 17k $336k (exactly $336,432) PIL/SLASH
Sisters: Last Day of Summer older $24.99 408 84% 12k $306k (exactly $305,878) Jellyfish
Asbury Pines · EA $12.99 558 90% 17k $217k (exactly $217,453) Chaystar Unlimited LLC
Two Falls (Nishu Takuatshina) $19.99 151 90% 4.5k $91k (exactly $90,555) Unreliable Narrators
Primal Hearts $24.99 38 89% 1.1k $28k (exactly $28,489) Marmalade
Jukai Maze $6.99 107 86% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,438) 致意
MIRO $14.99 32 100% 960 $14k (exactly $14,390) Lost Saved Data_
Magical Greenhouse $6.99 58 93% 1.7k $12k (exactly $12,163) Mgtt Studio
Greenhouse $9.99 33 100% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Ekull
Asterism $13.99 22 100% 660 $9.2k (exactly $9,233) Claire Morwood

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.