Do I ship it?

GamesInteractive FictionInteractive Fiction + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Interactive Fiction?

Interactive Fiction + Mystery

Of 632 developers who shipped a Mystery Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,131 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×4.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×710 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 1,131 games are announced against 370 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 1,131 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Interactive Fiction + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 632
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $3.9k → $3.4k → $4.2k → $2.8k → $3.0k → $1.5k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Interactive Fiction + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 632
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,611)
Top 5% $337k (exactly $337,275)
Developers, 2 yr 632
Released games 1,660
Announced 1,131
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Interactive Fiction; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Visual Novel, Multiple Endings
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 96,987 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 335 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,131 games are announced against 370 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Interactive Fiction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair164 devs · median $36k · 162 announced
  2. + Match 3Fair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair41 devs · median $1.8k · 52 announced
  4. + SportsFair19 devs · median $1.5k · 19 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair160 devs · median $1.4k · 144 announced
  6. + PiratesFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  7. + DrivingFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  8. + DiplomacyFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  9. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  10. + Board GameFair9 devs · median $657 · 12 announced
  11. + SnowFair10 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  12. + BuildingFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Interactive Fiction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
A Plague Tale: Requiem older $49.99 20,797 90% 624k $31M (exactly $31,189,261) Asobo Studio
Heavy Rain older $19.99 26,503 85% 795k $16M (exactly $15,893,849) Quantic Dream
The Hungry Lamb: Traveling in the Late Ming Dynasty older $9.99 49,765 94% 1.5M $15M (exactly $14,914,570) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
Until Then older $19.99 15,721 96% 472k $9.4M (exactly $9,427,884) Polychroma Games
The Invincible older $29.99 10,055 87% 302k $9.0M (exactly $9,046,484) Starward Industries
Gorogoa older $14.99 19,172 97% 575k $8.6M (exactly $8,621,648) Buried Signal
Lost Records: Bloom & Rage $39.99 5,873 86% 176k $7.0M (exactly $7,045,838) DON'T NOD
Unheard - Voices of Crime older $6.99 30,978 95% 929k $6.5M (exactly $6,496,087) NEXT Studios
Until Dawn™ $59.99 3,564 82% 107k $6.4M (exactly $6,414,131) Ballistic Moon
The Roottrees are Dead $19.99 9,700 96% 291k $5.8M (exactly $5,817,090) Evil Trout Inc.
Shift At Midnight $9.99 10,147 88% 304k $3.0M (exactly $3,041,056) Bun Muen
The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall $11.99 8,227 58% 247k $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
The Rise of the Golden Idol $19.99 3,786 92% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,464) Color Gray Games
The Mermaid Mask $19.99 2,776 99% 83k $1.7M (exactly $1,664,767) SFB Games
月华辉映之刻 $11.99 4,227 89% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,520,452) 侠客狗工作室
Desktop Explorer $17.99 2,077 96% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,120,957) Recurring Dream

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.