Do I ship it?

GamesRunnerRunner + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Runner?

Runner + Incremental

Only 16 developers shipped an Incremental Runner in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Progress Racer RPG, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $59 in the last 2 years and $59 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 9 developers shipped in the last year and 9 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 9 announced, ×1.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Runner + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $120 → $0 → $386 → $987 → $59 → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Runner + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $59 (exactly $59)
Top 25% $628 (exactly $628)
Top 5% $24k (exactly $23,900)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 56
Announced 9
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Runner, Incremental
Price point
$2.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 93% positive over 168 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $59, 1 in 4 over $620, 1 in 20 over $23k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 9 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Runner with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 10 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + PsychologicalFair14 devs · median $839 · 12 announced
  4. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $838 · 8 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair12 devs · median $750 · 11 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair15 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  7. + FPSLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  8. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  9. + MusicPoor odds16 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $1.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $898 · 64 announced
  12. + Interactive FictionPoor odds10 devs · median $839 · 16 announced

All 123 pairs on the Runner page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Music Racer older $1.99 3,332 87% 100k $199k (exactly $198,920) AbstractArt
绝命游歌 older $6.99 159 82% 4.8k $33k (exactly $33,342) DreamStep, Wild Kid Games
SUPER 56 older $6.99 146 94% 4.4k $31k (exactly $30,616) Onion Soup Interactive
Progress Racer RPG $5.99 133 94% 4.0k $24k (exactly $23,900) Cameron Ladjevardi, David Elliot
Infectious older $3.99 77 67% 2.3k $9.2k (exactly $9,217) Ziggy Makes Games
BeachRun older $24.99 11 100% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Gamesforgames
ClickMonster older $4.99 42 66% 1.3k $6.3k (exactly $6,287) Wertex Games
Save The Octo older $4.99 19 78% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) RexTo Studios
The Call Of Paper Plane older $3.99 23 86% 690 $2.8k (exactly $2,753) Shanhai Game Studio
Mr.Bottle and his dream older $2.99 26 76% 780 $2.3k (exactly $2,332) BeyondTheWind
BiColor - Vision Trainer $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Binary Brain Games
Cube-Field+ $2.99 11 100% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Cool Birb Studio
Vanguard - Idle Auto Battler $2.99 7 57% 210 $628 (exactly $628) Beep2Bleep
Echoes of the Deep : Incremental Endless Miner $6.80 2 100% 60 $408 (exactly $408) Konstantinos "Spellmystery" V… (Konstantinos "Spellmystery" Voukelatos)
福报镖局 $3.99 3 100% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Flappy Cow Studio
The Fallen Kingdom $1.99 5 100% 150 $298 (exactly $298) Lucas Baldi Aragão
Miner to Die $0.99 2 100% 60 $59 (exactly $59) Mercimek Games
Balloon Ride $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Karthick K
The Watcher $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Sai Game

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.