Do I ship it?

GamesTime ManipulationTime Manipulation + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Time Manipulation game?

Time Manipulation + Horror

Of 27 developers who shipped a Horror Time Manipulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 62 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×688 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 62 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 62 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Time Manipulation + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $898 → $6.1k → $2.3k → $839 → $2.7k → $269 (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Time Manipulation + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $5.2k (exactly $5,211)
Top 5% $327k (exactly $326,958)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 83
Announced 62
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Time Manipulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Logic
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 97% positive over 6,202 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $840, 1 in 4 over $5.2k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 62 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Time Manipulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DemonsFair14 devs · median $2.7k · 9 announced
  2. + CapitalismFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + ModernFair12 devs · median $987 · 9 announced
  4. + PsychologicalFair18 devs · median $897 · 17 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair10 devs · median $657 · 15 announced
  6. + RacingFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair22 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  8. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 24 announced
  9. + RobotsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 16 announced
  10. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $6.7k · 22 announced
  11. + DetectivePoor odds16 devs · median $6.5k · 32 announced
  12. + NoirPoor odds9 devs · median $6.5k · 15 announced

All 103 pairs on the Time Manipulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Singularity™ older $29.99 5,487 93% 165k $4.9M (exactly $4,936,654) Raven Software
The Drifter $19.99 4,735 97% 142k $2.8M (exactly $2,839,580) Powerhoof, Dave Lloyd
The Sexy Brutale older $19.99 2,895 91% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,736,131) Cavalier Game Studios, Tequila Works
NUTS older $24.99 884 88% 27k $663k (exactly $662,735) Joon, Pol, Muutsch, Char & Torfi
Lucifer Within Us older $19.99 635 73% 19k $381k (exactly $380,809) Kitfox Games
Deadeye Deepfake Simulacrum $12.99 839 98% 25k $327k (exactly $326,958) nodayshalleraseyou
Metel - Horror Escape · EA older $2.99 2,304 93% 69k $207k (exactly $206,669) Linked Squad
Tree Simulator 2022 older $5.99 1,022 97% 31k $184k (exactly $183,653) Revmatek
Orten Was The Case older $14.99 125 94% 3.8k $56k (exactly $56,212) Woodhill Interactive
Re:Turn - One Way Trip older $11.99 132 79% 4.0k $47k (exactly $47,480) Red Ego Games
The Demons Told Me to Make This Game · EA $12.99 100 98% 3.0k $39k (exactly $38,970) Haunted Dude
Paragnosia $3.99 228 92% 6.8k $27k (exactly $27,292) Sine Coda
Paragnosia: Museum $5.99 139 87% 4.2k $25k (exactly $24,978) Sine Coda
Slayaway Camp 2 $12.99 49 93% 1.5k $19k (exactly $19,095) Blue Wizard Digital
The Time Machine $9.99 35 97% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) Lionel Marsden
Zoo Protocol · EA $5.99 29 93% 870 $5.2k (exactly $5,211) WaveMood
Anomaly Protocol · EA $4.99 33 72% 990 $4.9k (exactly $4,940) Oriland
Daughter of The Void · EA $9.99 15 100% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Shaybabe

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.