Do I ship it?

GamesRunnerRunner + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Runner?

Runner + Horror

Of 55 developers who shipped a Horror Runner in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 62 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 29 developers shipped in the last year and 62 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 62 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Runner + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $599 → $718 → $356 → $359 → $897 → $449 (still earning) → $119 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Runner + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,696)
Top 5% $20k (exactly $20,135)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 170
Announced 62
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Runner; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Cinematic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 1,511 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $20k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 62 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Runner with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 10 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + PsychologicalFair14 devs · median $839 · 12 announced
  4. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $838 · 8 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair12 devs · median $750 · 11 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair15 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  7. + FPSLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  8. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  9. + MusicPoor odds16 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $1.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $898 · 64 announced
  12. + Interactive FictionPoor odds10 devs · median $839 · 16 announced

All 123 pairs on the Runner page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SEUM: Speedrunners from Hell older $14.99 2,050 95% 62k $922k (exactly $921,885) Pine Studio
Last Room older $29.99 953 73% 29k $857k (exactly $857,414) Quantum Forge Studios
ODDCORE · EA $12.99 1,080 96% 32k $421k (exactly $420,876) ODDCORP
Super Dark Deception older $17.99 660 65% 20k $356k (exactly $356,202) Glowstick Entertainment
Decimate Drive older $7.99 321 91% 9.6k $77k (exactly $76,944) Some Random Designing
[Chilla's Art] The Caregiver | 終焉介護 older $4.99 431 80% 13k $65k (exactly $64,521) Chilla's Art
Rabbit Riot older $39.99 49 87% 1.5k $59k (exactly $58,785) Reactor Studios
Sex Apocalypse 2 older $9.99 195 55% 5.9k $58k (exactly $58,442) Octo Games
[Chilla's Art] Hanako | 花子さん older $7.99 229 75% 6.9k $55k (exactly $54,891) Chilla's Art
Corridor Z older $7.99 201 85% 6.0k $48k (exactly $48,180) Mass Creation
Dark Succubus $6.99 171 77% 5.1k $36k (exactly $35,859) ZC Game
Zardy's Cave $7.99 84 80% 2.5k $20k (exactly $20,135) Full Trek Media
Strange Brew $14.99 24 100% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Electric Monk Media
The Backrooms: Rescue Expedition $9.99 21 33% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) {CRYTIME}
Only Out $4.99 40 95% 1.2k $6.0k (exactly $5,988) Shark Studio
Misty Onsen $5.99 32 56% 960 $5.8k (exactly $5,750) 神 SHEN
Campfire: Night One $14.99 12 91% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Prisca, Mezey Krisztián
Lazy Climbers $4.99 35 68% 1.1k $5.2k (exactly $5,240) Cool Car Studio
Maniac Path 3 $9.99 12 100% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Gamesforgames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.