Do I ship it?

GamesTime ManipulationTime Manipulation + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Time Manipulation game?

Time Manipulation + Historical

Only 9 developers shipped a Historical Time Manipulation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, A Better World, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $19k, ×31 the market median. Revenue is up 475% on the market; 19 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 475% on the market, 19 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Time Manipulation + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $450 → $776 → $0 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Time Manipulation + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $2.0k (exactly $1,973)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,298)
Top 5% $19k (exactly $19,424)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 31
Announced 19
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 475% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Time Manipulation
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 1,877 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $19k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 19 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Time Manipulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DemonsFair14 devs · median $2.7k · 9 announced
  2. + CapitalismFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + ModernFair12 devs · median $987 · 9 announced
  4. + PsychologicalFair18 devs · median $897 · 17 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair10 devs · median $657 · 15 announced
  6. + RacingFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair22 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  8. + Choose Your Own AdventurePoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 24 announced
  9. + RobotsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 16 announced
  10. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $6.7k · 22 announced
  11. + DetectivePoor odds16 devs · median $6.5k · 32 announced
  12. + NoirPoor odds9 devs · median $6.5k · 15 announced

All 103 pairs on the Time Manipulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wanderer older $39.99 824 83% 25k $989k (exactly $988,553) Mighty Eyes
Metro Simulator 2 older $14.99 674 65% 20k $303k (exactly $303,098) KishMish Games
Train World older $34.99 85 75% 2.6k $89k (exactly $89,224) Turn Point Games
Inua - A Story in Ice and Time older $14.99 81 93% 2.4k $36k (exactly $36,426) The Pixel Hunt, IKO, ARTE France
Chernobyl Again older $19.99 39 61% 1.2k $23k (exactly $23,388) Vimagineo Sp. z o.o.
Industry Giant older $9.99 70 77% 2.1k $21k (exactly $20,979) QLOC
A Better World $11.99 54 64% 1.6k $19k (exactly $19,424) Ludogram, ARTE France
The Time Machine $9.99 35 97% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) Lionel Marsden
Reptilian Rising $29.99 7 100% 210 $6.3k (exactly $6,298) Gregarious Games, Robot Circus, Hyper L… (Gregarious Games, Robot Circus, Hyper Luminal Games)
Hua Mulan: A Chinese Learning Adventure · EA older $19.99 8 25% 240 $4.8k (exactly $4,798) ODEUM
Nazar $9.99 12 75% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Eray Dinc Studio, Recontact Games
Sakamoto Dangerous Barrage $2.99 22 100% 660 $2.0k (exactly $1,973) Retsu Teikoku
Temporal Gunslinger $2.99 11 100% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Ledan's Gift
時の迷路 ~恐竜時代から江戸時代まで~ 作・絵 香川元太郎 $12.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) DreamOnline
Signs and Seasons Explorer $10.00 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Great Wall Studio
TETWORD $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) BrainGymGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.