Do I ship it?

GamesInteractive FictionInteractive Fiction + Heist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Heist Interactive Fiction?

Interactive Fiction + Heist

Only 4 developers shipped a Heist Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years. Over 4 years, 14 did: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $16k against a market of $630. 9 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 25.8 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 9 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Interactive Fiction + Heist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr n = 14

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Interactive Fiction + Heist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 4 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Median $8.1k (exactly $8,095)
Top 25% $47k (exactly $46,753)
Top 5% $98k (exactly $98,302)
Developers, 4 yr 14
Released games 25
Announced 9
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
Heist
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Interactive Fiction
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 4 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 11,712 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 4 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $8.1k, 1 in 4 over $46k, 1 in 20 over $98k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 9 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Interactive Fiction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair164 devs · median $36k · 162 announced
  2. + Match 3Fair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair41 devs · median $1.8k · 52 announced
  4. + SportsFair19 devs · median $1.5k · 19 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair160 devs · median $1.4k · 144 announced
  6. + PiratesFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  7. + DrivingFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  8. + DiplomacyFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  9. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  10. + Board GameFair9 devs · median $657 · 12 announced
  11. + SnowFair10 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  12. + BuildingFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Interactive Fiction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hobo: Tough Life older $29.99 8,679 84% 260k $7.8M (exactly $7,808,496) Perun Creative
Twin Mirror older $29.99 997 76% 30k $897k (exactly $897,001) DON'T NOD
SIMULACRA 3 older $9.99 328 56% 9.8k $98k (exactly $98,302) Kaigan Games
Between Time: Escape Room older $9.99 326 80% 9.8k $98k (exactly $97,702) mc2games
Cybernetic Seduction - Season 1 older $12.99 195 80% 5.9k $76k (exactly $75,992) 1Thousand
Whiskey.Mafia. Leo's Family older $5.99 331 68% 9.9k $59k (exactly $59,481) FastGame, VICTORIA Games
Thousand Hells: The Underworld Heists $24.99 76 78% 2.3k $57k (exactly $56,977) A Sharp
Sunshine Shuffle older $9.99 156 76% 4.7k $47k (exactly $46,753) Strange Scaffold
UNMEMORY older $9.99 79 84% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,676) PATRONES & ESCONDITES
SimuLadron $0.99 545 94% 16k $16k (exactly $16,186) Jokai Studio
ACCIDENTALLY $12.99 30 60% 900 $12k (exactly $11,691) M&K WORKS
Escape from the Archives $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Brad Wright

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.