Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Grid-Based Movement

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Grid-Based Movement Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Grid-Based Movement

Of 176 developers who shipped a Grid-Based Movement Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 377 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×4.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×341 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 377 games are announced against 103 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 377 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Grid-Based Movement
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 176
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.1k → $4.2k → $3.3k → $719 → $3.6k → $3.3k → $1.3k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Grid-Based Movement: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 176
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,990)
Top 5% $162k (exactly $162,132)
Developers, 2 yr 176
Released games 496
Announced 377
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Grid-Based Movement
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat, Grid-Based Movement; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 59,292 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 9 in 10 of the 85 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 377 games are announced against 103 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
STAR WARS Zero Company™ $49.99 19,521 82% 586k $29M (exactly $29,275,644) Bit Reactor
Battle Brothers older $29.99 26,118 87% 784k $23M (exactly $23,498,365) Overhype Studios
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
King Arthur: Knight's Tale older $44.99 6,722 83% 202k $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) NeocoreGames
TRIANGLE STRATEGY older $59.99 3,239 78% 97k $5.8M (exactly $5,829,228) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Xenonauts 2 $39.99 4,853 81% 146k $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) Goldhawk Interactive
Vampire Crawlers: The Turbo Wildcard from Vampire Survivors $9.99 18,587 96% 558k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,524) poncle, Nosebleed Interactive
Might & Magic X - Legacy older $29.99 3,178 65% 95k $2.9M (exactly $2,859,247) Ubisoft
Hard West 2 older $29.99 2,717 80% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,444,485) Ice Code Games
Lost Eidolons: Veil of the Witch $24.99 1,293 81% 39k $969k (exactly $969,362) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
Warside $24.99 547 68% 16k $410k (exactly $410,086) LAVABIRD
House of Necrosis $11.99 581 94% 17k $209k (exactly $208,986) Warkus
THYSIASTERY $17.49 309 80% 9.3k $162k (exactly $162,132) DIRGA
Veterum $19.99 204 85% 6.1k $122k (exactly $122,339) Crasleen Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.