Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Tactics › Turn-Based Tactics + Gambling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gambling Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Gambling

Of 54 developers who shipped a Gambling Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 60 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 36 developers shipped in the last year and 60 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 60 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Gambling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 54
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $267 → $418 → $359 → $449 → $2.4k → $479 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Gambling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 54
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $4.1k (exactly $4,133)
Top 5% $128k (exactly $128,443)
Developers, 2 yr 54
Released games 88
Announced 60
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics, Gambling; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 2,913 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $480, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 60 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + ProgrammingFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  4. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  6. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  7. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  9. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  12. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Bingle Bingle 2026 · $300k Menherarium: Deadly Dice 2026 · $180k SIDE EFFECTS 2025 · $128k Midnight Mahjong 2021 · $48k Pip My Dice 2025 · $44k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Bingle Bingle $14.99 666 80% 20k $300k (exactly $299,500) Knitting Games
Menherarium: Deadly Dice $8.99 669 92% 20k $180k (exactly $180,429) テスカトリポカ
SIDE EFFECTS $4.99 858 83% 26k $128k (exactly $128,443) hirohun, Mr.Pootsley, Jaybooty, Lofar42
Midnight Mahjong older $6.99 227 64% 6.8k $48k (exactly $47,602) AleCubicSoft
Pip My Dice $10.99 134 87% 4.0k $44k (exactly $44,180) Diving Swan Games
Mahjong Nagomi older $4.99 245 79% 7.4k $37k (exactly $36,676) Zoo Corporation
Bonesaw $6.66 179 89% 5.4k $36k (exactly $35,764) Blood Pact Studios
Dice Tavern: Farkle Roguelike $9.99 112 90% 3.4k $34k (exactly $33,566) Cavi Studio
Dance of Cards older $9.99 93 88% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,872) GoodMorningMrFrog
Spinera $6.99 123 77% 3.7k $26k (exactly $25,793) Arvis Games
Anomaly Mahjong $4.99 94 65% 2.8k $14k (exactly $14,072) YUTAMARO WORLD
Ribbit Rogue $9.99 35 91% 1.1k $10k (exactly $10,490) King Krab Games
Coinsweeper $4.99 43 86% 1.3k $6.4k (exactly $6,437) Duo Forge Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.