Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based CombatTurn-Based Combat + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Turn-Based Combat game?

Turn-Based Combat + Futuristic

Of 60 developers who shipped a Futuristic Turn-Based Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 162 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $330; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×729 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 162 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 162 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Combat + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 60
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $54k → $4.8k → $2.2k → $748 → $2.1k → $1.4k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Combat + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 60
Bottom 30% $330 (exactly $330)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,294)
Top 5% $346k (exactly $346,384)
Developers, 2 yr 60
Released games 189
Announced 162
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Combat; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Strategy, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 4,707 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $330, median $900, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $330. 8 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 162 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaStrong odds20 devs · median $19k · 21 announced
  2. + Hack and SlashStrong odds28 devs · median $3.7k · 27 announced
  3. + RomeFair8 devs · median $16k · 13 announced
  4. + CookingFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  5. + UndergroundFair18 devs · median $4.2k · 29 announced
  6. + IdlerFair52 devs · median $4.0k · 41 announced
  7. + DiceFair49 devs · median $2.2k · 59 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair59 devs · median $1.3k · 71 announced
  10. + Tower DefenseFair28 devs · median $839 · 34 announced
  11. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $719 · 52 announced
  12. + SolitaireFair26 devs · median $450 · 31 announced

All 175 pairs on the Turn-Based Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters older $44.99 11,426 76% 343k $15M (exactly $15,421,672) Complex Games
FINAL FANTASY® XIII older $15.99 16,314 74% 489k $7.8M (exactly $7,825,826) Square Enix
XCOM®: Chimera Squad older $9.99 20,602 71% 618k $6.2M (exactly $6,174,419) Firaxis Games
Soul Hackers 2 older $59.99 2,300 65% 69k $4.1M (exactly $4,139,310) ATLUS
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus II $39.99 2,088 53% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,504,974) Bulwark Studios
The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak older $59.99 1,172 91% 35k $2.1M (exactly $2,109,248) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
Star Renegades older $24.99 2,673 82% 80k $2.0M (exactly $2,003,948) Massive Damage, Inc.
LumenTale: Memories of Trey $24.99 1,130 70% 34k $847k (exactly $847,161) Beehive Studios
Beneath Oresa older $24.99 1,122 78% 34k $841k (exactly $841,163) Broken Spear Inc.
Interstellar Space: Genesis older $29.99 712 83% 21k $641k (exactly $640,586) Praxis Games
Every Day We Fight · EA $29.99 385 72% 12k $346k (exactly $346,384) Signal Space Lab
Starless Abyss $19.99 296 83% 8.9k $178k (exactly $177,511) Konafa Games
Beyond Galaxyland $14.99 314 85% 9.4k $141k (exactly $141,206) Sam Enright
STARBITES $49.99 42 64% 1.3k $63k (exactly $62,987) IKINAGAMES
Infinity: HexaDome Tactics $19.99 92 75% 2.8k $55k (exactly $55,172) Blindspot Games
Emperor of the Fading Suns Enhanced $9.99 174 95% 5.2k $52k (exactly $52,148) Holistic Design, Inc.
Project Afterfall · EA $19.99 80 75% 2.4k $48k (exactly $47,976) MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio
Void Marauders $13.99 106 77% 3.2k $44k (exactly $44,488) Autarca

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.