Do I ship it?

GamesFPSFPS + World War I

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWI FPS?

FPS + World War I

Only 8 developers shipped a WWI FPS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Over The Top: WWI, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $17k, ×12 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $3.8M, ×2562 the market median. Revenue is up 5456825% on the market; 11 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 5456825% on the market, 11 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + World War I
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for FPS + World War I: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $17k (exactly $17,498)
Top 25% $3.6M (exactly $3,612,296)
Top 5% $3.8M (exactly $3,837,379)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 37
Announced 11
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 5456980% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
World War I
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 300,250 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $17k, 1 in 4 over $3.6M, 1 in 20 over $3.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 11 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 1 older $39.99 200,661 86% 6.0M $241M (exactly $240,733,002) DICE
Verdun older $59.99 28,967 87% 869k $52M (exactly $52,131,910) BlackMill Games
Isonzo older $39.99 14,434 85% 433k $17M (exactly $17,316,470) BlackMill Games
Holdfast: Nations At War older $19.99 26,624 90% 799k $16M (exactly $15,966,413) Anvil Game Studios
Tannenberg older $19.99 7,644 86% 229k $4.6M (exactly $4,584,107) Blackmill Games
Over The Top: WWI $19.14 6,683 84% 200k $3.8M (exactly $3,837,379) Flying Squirrel Entertainment
Gallipoli $29.99 4,015 78% 120k $3.6M (exactly $3,612,296) BlackMill Games
Rising Front $14.99 4,057 88% 122k $1.8M (exactly $1,824,433) Sandstorm Studios Inc.
Beyond The Wire older $9.99 5,247 68% 157k $1.6M (exactly $1,572,526) Redstone Interactive
Battle of Empires : 1914-1918 older $8.99 1,918 68% 58k $517k (exactly $517,285) Great War Team
Beach Invasion 1915-Gallipoli $7.99 73 71% 2.2k $17k (exactly $17,498) AIx2 Games
Bolsheviktion 3D $4.88 44 93% 1.3k $6.4k (exactly $6,442) Pelican Blue Software
Operation Anatolia: The Great Offensive $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Musa Yiğit Yayla
hotland $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) AdamasZ
Chronicle Archive - Japan · EA $24.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Yugijitsu LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.