Should I ship a War FPS?
FPS + War
Of 122 developers who shipped a War FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 286 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×2.1 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $6.4M, ×4315 the market median. Revenue is up 360% on the market; 286 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.1k (exactly $3,148) |
| Top 25% | $95k (exactly $94,753) |
| Top 5% | $6.5M (exactly $6,463,164) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 122 |
| Released games | 657 |
| Announced | 286 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.90 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 360% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- FPS; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Tactical
- Price point
- $9.90 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic, Violent
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.90.
The top 10 games average 62% positive over 427,650 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 71 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 286 games are announced against 71 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + FaithFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + RunnerLong shot
- + Action RTSLong shot
- + Bullet HellLong shot
- + DogsLong shot
Comparable games
Battlefield™ 6 2025 · $620M 
Battlefield™ 2042 2021 · $468M 
Battlefield™ V 2020 · $355M 
Battlefield™ 1 2020 · $241M 
Squad 2020 · $217M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Battlefield™ 6 | $69.99 | 295,442 63% | 8.9M | $620M (exactly $620,339,567) | Battlefield Studios | |
| | Battlefield™ 2042 | older | $59.99 | 260,308 49% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,476,308) | DICE |
| | Battlefield™ V | older | $49.99 | 236,709 70% | 7.1M | $355M (exactly $354,992,487) | DICE |
| | Battlefield™ 1 | older | $39.99 | 200,661 86% | 6.0M | $241M (exactly $240,733,002) | DICE |
| | Squad | older | $39.99 | 180,505 82% | 5.4M | $217M (exactly $216,551,848) | Offworld |
 | Arma 3 | older | $29.99 | 228,910 90% | 6.9M | $206M (exactly $205,950,327) | Bohemia Interactive |
 | Hell Let Loose | older | $49.99 | 99,628 83% | 3.0M | $149M (exactly $149,412,112) | Expression Games |
 | Sniper Elite 4 | older | $59.99 | 54,258 91% | 1.6M | $98M (exactly $97,648,123) | Rebellion |
 | Insurgency: Sandstorm | older | $29.99 | 104,168 85% | 3.1M | $94M (exactly $93,719,950) | New World Interactive |
 | Escape from Tarkov | $49.99 | 55,824 49% | 1.7M | $84M (exactly $83,719,253) | Battlestate Games | |
 | Call of Duty®: Black Ops 6 | $69.99 | 14,063 44% | 422k | $30M (exactly $29,528,081) | Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High… (Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games, Infinity Ward, Demonware) | |
 | GROUND BRANCH | $29.99 | 22,391 83% | 672k | $20M (exactly $20,145,183) | BlackFoot Studios, MicroProse Software | |
 | Hell Let Loose: Vietnam | $39.99 | 10,702 61% | 321k | $13M (exactly $12,839,189) | Expression Games | |
 | Call of Duty®: Black Ops 7 | $69.99 | 4,344 37% | 130k | $9.1M (exactly $9,121,097) | Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High… (Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Sledgehammer Games, Infinity Ward, Activision Shanghai, Demonware) | |
 | Onward | $24.99 | 8,621 69% | 259k | $6.5M (exactly $6,463,164) | Downpour Interactive | |
 | MechWarrior 5: Clans | $29.99 | 5,565 74% | 167k | $5.0M (exactly $5,006,830) | Piranha Games Inc. | |
 | Over The Top: WWI | $19.14 | 6,683 84% | 200k | $3.8M (exactly $3,837,379) | Flying Squirrel Entertainment | |
 | Gallipoli | $29.99 | 4,015 78% | 120k | $3.6M (exactly $3,612,296) | BlackMill Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.