Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Transhumanism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Transhumanist FPS?

FPS + Transhumanism

Only 8 developers shipped a Transhumanist FPS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, INCISION, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.1k, ×5.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $440k, ×299 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 28 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 28 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Transhumanism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $185k → $748 → $8.1k
Outcomes for FPS + Transhumanism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Median $8.1k (exactly $8,092)
Top 25% $54k (exactly $53,946)
Top 5% $448k (exactly $448,351)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 32
Announced 28
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Transhumanism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 77,071 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $8.1k, 1 in 4 over $53k, 1 in 20 over $440k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 28 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Deus Ex: Mankind Divided 2016 · $28M Deus Ex: Human Revolution - Director's Cut 2013 · $15M SUPERHOT: MIND CONTROL DELETE 2020 · $6.9M Deadlink 2023 · $2.2M Deus Ex: The Fall 2014 · $1.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided older $29.99 30,709 77% 921k $28M (exactly $27,628,887) Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linu… (Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linux/Mac))
Deus Ex: Human Revolution - Director's Cut older $19.99 25,392 91% 762k $15M (exactly $15,227,582) Eidos Montreal
SUPERHOT: MIND CONTROL DELETE older $24.99 9,247 85% 277k $6.9M (exactly $6,932,476) SUPERHOT Team
Deadlink older $24.99 2,871 90% 86k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,389) Gruby Entertainment
Deus Ex: The Fall older $9.99 3,762 37% 113k $1.1M (exactly $1,127,471) ·
USAC: Code Breach older $14.99 1,067 91% 32k $480k (exactly $479,830) Questions Factory
Deus Ex: Invisible War older $6.99 2,199 57% 66k $461k (exactly $461,130) Ion Storm
INCISION $14.99 997 85% 30k $448k (exactly $448,351) SmoothBrainDev
Disintegration older $29.99 210 60% 6.3k $189k (exactly $188,937) V1 Interactive
The Anacrusis older $9.99 617 68% 19k $185k (exactly $184,915) Stray Bombay
Tower Tag $9.99 180 90% 5.4k $54k (exactly $53,946) Steinfatt GmbH
Extraneum $14.99 111 94% 3.3k $50k (exactly $49,917) David Jalbert
Brotherhood $9.99 27 96% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) FatCatGames
Goddess Scroll - Brave Star $9.99 7 14% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) Revenge Red Eyes
Project RAZE: Fall of Terra · EA $9.99 7 100% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) FearForge Studios
Charge! $15.00 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Honor Games®
Mutation · EA $12.99 1 100% 30 $390 (exactly $390) Ossified Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.