Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Time Manipulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time Manipulation FPS?

FPS + Time Manipulation

Only 18 developers shipped a Time Manipulation FPS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Vendetta Forever, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240. 53 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper, while revenue is down 75% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 53 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Time Manipulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $836 → $2.9k → $1.7k → $240 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Time Manipulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $2.0k (exactly $1,978)
Top 5% $20k (exactly $20,390)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 85
Announced 53
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, Time Manipulation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Stylized, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 130 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $600, 1 in 4 over $1.9k, 1 in 20 over $20k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. All of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

DEATHLOOP 2021 · $36M SUPERHOT 2016 · $21M SUPERHOT: MIND CONTROL DELETE 2020 · $6.9M SUPERHOT VR 2017 · $6.0M Singularity™ 2010 · $4.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DEATHLOOP older $59.99 19,910 76% 597k $36M (exactly $35,832,027) Arkane Studios
SUPERHOT older $24.99 27,765 91% 833k $21M (exactly $20,815,420) SUPERHOT Team
SUPERHOT: MIND CONTROL DELETE older $24.99 9,247 85% 277k $6.9M (exactly $6,932,476) SUPERHOT Team
SUPERHOT VR older $24.99 7,978 82% 239k $6.0M (exactly $5,981,107) SUPERHOT Team
Singularity™ older $29.99 5,487 93% 165k $4.9M (exactly $4,936,654) Raven Software
The Entropy Centre older $19.99 3,359 89% 101k $2.0M (exactly $2,014,392) Stubby Games
TimeShift™ older $19.99 1,131 80% 34k $678k (exactly $678,261) Saber Interactive
NUTS older $24.99 884 88% 27k $663k (exactly $662,735) Joon, Pol, Muutsch, Char & Torfi
Bullet Sorrow VR older $19.99 272 83% 8.2k $163k (exactly $163,118) VikingVRStudio
Time Rifters older $9.99 395 87% 12k $118k (exactly $118,382) Proton Studio Inc
Vendetta Forever $19.99 34 76% 1.0k $20k (exactly $20,390) Meatspace Interactive
SPEEDSHOT $14.99 27 100% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) karmacode
Time Hacker $14.99 24 70% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Joy Way
Check & Clean $13.99 5 80% 150 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) Unexpected Games
Medieval Tavern Simulator · EA $10.99 6 83% 180 $2.0k (exactly $1,978) Superwolf Game Studio
Broken Time $3.99 14 100% 420 $1.7k (exactly $1,676) N777
Temporal Gunslinger $2.99 11 100% 330 $987 (exactly $987) Ledan's Gift
Blue Hill Wendigo $6.99 4 75% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Merchant Of Stories
Bodycam:Adrenaline $9.99 2 0% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Rocket Game
Cursed Hospital $5.99 3 66% 90 $539 (exactly $539) KaashFusionStudio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.