Should I ship a Survival FPS?
FPS + Survival
Of 351 developers who shipped a Survival FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 684 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×979 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 684 games are announced against 189 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,198) |
| Top 25% | $8.6k (exactly $8,572) |
| Top 5% | $1.5M (exactly $1,466,866) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 351 |
| Released games | 1,413 |
| Announced | 684 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- FPS, Survival; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Adventure
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 76% positive over 461,095 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 207 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 684 games are announced against 189 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + FaithFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + RunnerLong shot
- + Action RTSLong shot
- + Bullet HellLong shot
- + DogsLong shot
Comparable games
Rust 2018 · $1.4B 
DayZ 2018 · $582M 
No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M 
7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M 
Far Cry® 5 2018 · $311M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Rust | older | $39.99 | 1,167,920 87% | 35M | $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) | Facepunch Studios |
| | DayZ | older | $49.99 | 387,850 78% | 12M | $582M (exactly $581,658,645) | Bohemia Interactive |
| | No Man's Sky | older | $59.99 | 315,054 83% | 9.5M | $567M (exactly $567,002,684) | Hello Games |
| | 7 Days to Die | older | $44.99 | 273,589 87% | 8.2M | $369M (exactly $369,263,073) | The Fun Pimps |
| | Far Cry® 5 | older | $59.99 | 172,897 81% | 5.2M | $311M (exactly $311,162,731) | Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Sh… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Kiev) |
 | Dying Light | older | $24.99 | 373,413 95% | 11M | $280M (exactly $279,947,726) | Techland |
 | Deep Rock Galactic | older | $29.99 | 303,142 97% | 9.1M | $273M (exactly $272,736,857) | Ghost Ship Games |
 | Left 4 Dead 2 | older | $9.99 | 816,316 97% | 24M | $245M (exactly $244,649,905) | Valve |
 | S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl | $59.99 | 106,592 81% | 3.2M | $192M (exactly $191,833,622) | GSC Game World | |
 | Fallout 4 | older | $19.99 | 290,555 81% | 8.7M | $174M (exactly $174,245,834) | Bethesda Game Studios |
 | SCUM | $44.99 | 98,554 74% | 3.0M | $133M (exactly $133,018,334) | Gamepires | |
 | Escape from Tarkov | $49.99 | 55,824 49% | 1.7M | $84M (exactly $83,719,253) | Battlestate Games | |
 | Marathon | $39.99 | 44,919 81% | 1.3M | $54M (exactly $53,889,324) | Bungie | |
 | Abiotic Factor | $34.99 | 42,075 95% | 1.3M | $44M (exactly $44,166,128) | Deep Field Games | |
 | Deadside | $24.99 | 34,560 76% | 1.0M | $26M (exactly $25,909,632) | Bad Pixel | |
 | Far Far West | · EA | $19.99 | 31,458 95% | 944k | $19M (exactly $18,865,363) | Evil Raptor |
 | No More Room in Hell 2 | $29.99 | 16,725 62% | 502k | $15M (exactly $15,047,482) | Torn Banner Studios | |
 | Drive Beyond Horizons | · EA | $24.99 | 17,903 77% | 537k | $13M (exactly $13,421,879) | Drive Beyond Horizons |
 | SAND: Raiders of Sophie | · EA | $24.99 | 12,485 49% | 375k | $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) | Hologryph, TowerHaus |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.