Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Sports

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sports FPS?

FPS + Sports

Of 46 developers who shipped a Sports FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 63 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper, while revenue is up 170% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 63 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Sports
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $600 → $1.9k → $1.2k → $450 → $2.4k → $239 → $450 (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Sports: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $450 (exactly $450)
Top 25% $2.6k (exactly $2,567)
Top 5% $54k (exactly $53,946)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 272
Announced 63
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, Sports; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Arena Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 3,441 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $53k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. Nearly all of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

theHunter: Call of the Wild™ 2017 · $102M Way of the Hunter 2022 · $7.7M Aokana - Four Rhythms Across the Blue 2019 · $5.3M Ultimate Fishing Simulator® 2018 · $5.0M STRIDE 2022 · $1.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
theHunter: Call of the Wild™ older $19.99 170,472 89% 5.1M $102M (exactly $102,232,058) Expansive Worlds
Way of the Hunter older $29.99 8,528 81% 256k $7.7M (exactly $7,672,642) Nine Rocks Games
Aokana - Four Rhythms Across the Blue older $34.99 5,080 97% 152k $5.3M (exactly $5,332,476) sprite, NekoNyan Ltd.
Ultimate Fishing Simulator® older $19.99 8,256 89% 248k $5.0M (exactly $4,951,123) Ultimate Games S.A., Bit Golem
STRIDE older $19.99 1,975 79% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,184,408) Joy Way
Hunting Simulator 2 older $39.99 904 70% 27k $1.1M (exactly $1,084,529) Nacon Studio Ghent
Gym Simulator 24 older $12.99 2,531 84% 76k $986k (exactly $986,331) Red Axe Games
Ricochet older $4.99 4,549 82% 136k $681k (exactly $680,985) Valve
Robot Roller-Derby Disco Dodgeball older $9.99 2,258 91% 68k $677k (exactly $676,723) Erik Asmussen
Nine-Ball Roulette $3.99 2,159 88% 65k $258k (exactly $258,432) WaveBox Labs
Shooters, Ready! $4.99 807 99% 24k $121k (exactly $120,808) おこめたべたべず
Tower Tag $9.99 180 90% 5.4k $54k (exactly $53,946) Steinfatt GmbH
Vilde $15.99 87 74% 2.6k $42k (exactly $41,734) Chaotic Minds
Flatinside Simulator · EA $9.99 64 64% 1.9k $19k (exactly $19,181) SncI Studios
SPORTAL $7.99 57 94% 1.7k $14k (exactly $13,663) Sleepwalking Potatoes
Moorhuhn 2 $4.99 31 96% 930 $4.6k (exactly $4,641) Higgs Games GmbH, GeekPit Studio
JOI Lab PC $7.99 18 33% 540 $4.3k (exactly $4,315) Caulino
Go-Kart Simulator · EA $3.99 29 58% 870 $3.5k (exactly $3,471) Payna Games
SkyLeap $11.99 9 100% 270 $3.2k (exactly $3,237) XOCUS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.