Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Spectacle fighter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Spectacle fighter FPS?

FPS + Spectacle fighter

Of 26 developers who shipped a Spectacle fighter FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.2k, ×4.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×91 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 56 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 56 announced, ×5.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Spectacle fighter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $36k → $9.6k → $5.5k → $12k → $16k → $240 (still earning) → $1.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Spectacle fighter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,197)
Median $6.2k (exactly $6,235)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,964)
Top 5% $136k (exactly $136,005)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 76
Announced 56
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, Spectacle fighter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Arena Shooter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
9 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Fast-Paced, First-Person, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 1,842 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $6.2k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 56 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ULTRAKILL 2020 · EA · $192M I Am Your Beast 2024 · $3.2M HYPER DEMON 2022 · $1.4M Shady Knight 2024 · $539k REAVER 2023 · EA · $226k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ULTRAKILL · EA older $29.99 213,450 97% 6.4M $192M (exactly $192,040,965) Arsi "Hakita" Patala
I Am Your Beast older $19.99 5,275 97% 158k $3.2M (exactly $3,163,417) Strange Scaffold
HYPER DEMON older $14.99 3,087 94% 93k $1.4M (exactly $1,388,224) Sorath
Shady Knight $19.99 898 93% 27k $539k (exactly $538,531) Alexey 'cptnsigh'
REAVER · EA older $13.99 539 87% 16k $226k (exactly $226,218) crunkz, Black Boat Games
illWill older $19.99 279 91% 8.4k $167k (exactly $167,316) Slava Bushuev
Voidborn $12.99 349 81% 10k $136k (exactly $136,005) Xekvera
Blood And Zombies older $14.99 293 58% 8.8k $132k (exactly $131,762) Wild Monkey
Blood Rush · EA $14.49 161 98% 4.8k $70k (exactly $69,987) MaxEstLa
Tales Of Glory 2 - Retaliation · EA older $5.99 225 66% 6.8k $40k (exactly $40,432) BlackTale Games
TEXNOPLAZM · EA $15.99 65 98% 2.0k $31k (exactly $31,180) Mothership Loudspeakerz
GLUM · EA $12.49 78 64% 2.3k $29k (exactly $29,227) CinderCat Games
Drunkn Bar Fight 2 VR · EA $12.99 64 50% 1.9k $25k (exactly $24,941) Yooperlite
hate.net $4.99 120 95% 3.6k $18k (exactly $17,964) bonitāka
Rebel Engine $19.99 27 81% 810 $16k (exactly $16,192) Seven Leaf Clover
UBERSLAUGHTER $9.99 54 87% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) BillyBobCletus
ODDRooM $14.99 26 96% 780 $12k (exactly $11,692) TEAM ODD

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.