Should I ship a Science FPS?
FPS + Science
Of 23 developers who shipped a Science FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×1.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×769 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 34 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $30 (exactly $30) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,799) |
| Top 25% | $7.9k (exactly $7,910) |
| Top 5% | $1.2M (exactly $1,151,424) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 23 |
| Released games | 68 |
| Announced | 34 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- FPS; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Combat
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Linear
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 94% positive over 44,197 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + FaithFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + RunnerLong shot
- + Action RTSLong shot
- + Bullet HellLong shot
- + DogsLong shot
Comparable games
Portal 2 2011 · $117M 
Portal 2007 · $52M 
Abiotic Factor 2025 · $44M 
METAL EDEN 2025 · $1.2M 
Genesis Alpha One Deluxe Edition 2020 · $939k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Portal 2 | older | $9.99 | 390,412 98% | 12M | $117M (exactly $117,006,476) | Valve |
| | Portal | older | $9.99 | 173,594 98% | 5.2M | $52M (exactly $52,026,122) | Valve |
| | Abiotic Factor | $34.99 | 42,075 95% | 1.3M | $44M (exactly $44,166,128) | Deep Field Games | |
| | METAL EDEN | $19.99 | 1,920 84% | 58k | $1.2M (exactly $1,151,424) | Reikon Games | |
| | Genesis Alpha One Deluxe Edition | older | $19.99 | 1,566 73% | 47k | $939k (exactly $939,130) | Radiation Blue |
 | Nucleares | older | $14.99 | 1,121 84% | 34k | $504k (exactly $504,114) | Iván Marcelo Pretti |
 | Suicide Guy | older | $5.99 | 2,794 88% | 84k | $502k (exactly $502,082) | Fabio Ferrara |
 | The Signal From Tölva | older | $19.99 | 792 71% | 24k | $475k (exactly $474,962) | Big Robot Ltd |
 | RIPOUT | older | $19.99 | 783 65% | 23k | $470k (exactly $469,565) | Pet Project Games |
 | Lightmatter | older | $19.99 | 691 94% | 21k | $414k (exactly $414,393) | Tunnel Vision Games |
 | Oxide Room 208 | $29.99 | 22 31% | 660 | $20k (exactly $19,793) | WildSphere | |
 | Utopia City | $6.99 | 41 60% | 1.2k | $8.6k (exactly $8,598) | Parallax Arts Studio | |
 | Brotherhood | $9.99 | 27 96% | 810 | $8.1k (exactly $8,092) | FatCatGames | |
 | Trigger of Time | $7.99 | 33 93% | 990 | $7.9k (exactly $7,910) | Pantopie | |
 | COLLAPSE COMPANY | · EA | $8.99 | 28 89% | 840 | $7.6k (exactly $7,552) | VOLT-TECKS GAME STUDIO |
 | The Hollow | $7.50 | 21 80% | 630 | $4.7k (exactly $4,725) | Brenntkopf Development, AGaming+ | |
 | Fasthand | $8.99 | 15 93% | 450 | $4.0k (exactly $4,046) | mefyu video games (MVG) | |
 | DEAREND | $6.99 | 15 73% | 450 | $3.1k (exactly $3,146) | KUROSAWACREATE |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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