Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an RPG FPS?

FPS + RPG

Of 208 developers who shipped an RPG FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 410 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×1.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×1925 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 410 games are announced against 90 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 410 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 208
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.0k → $2.5k → $2.2k → $5.3k → $2.7k → $4.6k → $3.9k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 208
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,726)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,387)
Top 5% $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538)
Developers, 2 yr 208
Released games 908
Announced 410
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Story Rich, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 352,715 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $2.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 145 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 410 games are announced against 90 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B Borderlands 3 2020 · $230M S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl 2024 · $192M Fallout 4 2015 · $174M SCUM 2025 · $133M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
Borderlands 3 older $59.99 127,847 81% 3.8M $230M (exactly $230,086,246) Gearbox Software
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
Fallout 4 older $19.99 290,555 81% 8.7M $174M (exactly $174,245,834) Bethesda Game Studios
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires
Warhammer 40,000: Darktide older $39.99 108,477 72% 3.3M $130M (exactly $130,139,857) Fatshark
Borderlands 2 older $19.99 210,364 89% 6.3M $126M (exactly $126,155,291) Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (L… (Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
BioShock Infinite older $29.99 109,718 93% 3.3M $99M (exactly $98,713,285) Irrational Games, Virtual Programming (… (Irrational Games, Virtual Programming (Linux))
Fallout 76 older $39.99 78,346 74% 2.4M $94M (exactly $93,991,696) Bethesda Game Studios
Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon $44.99 33,560 87% 1.0M $45M (exactly $45,295,932) Questline
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
Subverse $39.99 13,781 66% 413k $17M (exactly $16,533,066) Studio FOW Interactive
SULFUR · EA $24.99 9,641 87% 289k $7.2M (exactly $7,227,858) Perfect Random
Wildgate $29.99 5,032 77% 151k $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) Moonshot Games
S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Shadow of Chornobyl - Enhanced Edition $19.99 6,619 65% 199k $4.0M (exactly $3,969,414) GSC Game World
RoboCop: Rogue City - Unfinished Business $29.99 3,931 84% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,536,721) Teyon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.