Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Rhythm

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Rhythm FPS?

FPS + Rhythm

Of 20 developers who shipped a Rhythm FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.6k, ×1.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×162 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 28 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 28 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Rhythm
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $479 → $119 → $3.1k → $2.1k → $539 → $19k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Rhythm: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $2.6k (exactly $2,601)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,584)
Top 5% $243k (exactly $242,871)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 87
Announced 28
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 60% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, Rhythm; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Shooter, Action, Action-Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.49 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.49 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 2,909 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.6k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 9 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

A Dance of Fire and Ice 2019 · $14M Metal: Hellsinger 2022 · $13M BPM: BULLETS PER MINUTE 2020 · $5.8M Pistol Whip 2019 · $3.2M ROBOBEAT 2024 · $1.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
A Dance of Fire and Ice older $5.99 78,688 94% 2.4M $14M (exactly $14,140,234) 7th Beat Games
Metal: Hellsinger older $29.99 13,989 96% 420k $13M (exactly $12,585,903) The Outsiders
BPM: BULLETS PER MINUTE older $19.99 9,598 91% 288k $5.8M (exactly $5,755,921) Awe Interactive
Pistol Whip older $29.99 3,586 94% 108k $3.2M (exactly $3,226,324) Cloudhead Games Ltd.
ROBOBEAT older $19.99 1,708 94% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,024,288) Simon Fredholm
MUSYNX older $3.99 6,274 89% 188k $751k (exactly $750,998) I-Inferno
Hatsune Miku VR older $24.99 616 72% 18k $462k (exactly $461,815) Crypton Future Media
Rhythia · EA $3.99 2,029 83% 61k $243k (exactly $242,871) Capo Games
Rock Star Life Simulator $12.49 498 85% 15k $187k (exactly $186,601) HOGO Games
Metal: Hellsinger VR $29.99 107 68% 3.2k $96k (exactly $96,268) Lab42, The Outsiders
Sex Beats $9.99 62 77% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,581) Naku Kinoko
Tokyo Underground Killer $9.99 52 78% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,584) Phoenix Game Productions
Erotic Rhythm $3.99 61 90% 1.8k $7.3k (exactly $7,302) Naku Kinoko
Not an Aim Trainer $2.99 54 92% 1.6k $4.8k (exactly $4,844) Shockah
Unpatterned Cut $9.99 14 100% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Vnow Games
CYBERSLAYER: No Time to Regret $4.99 25 92% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) KAEV Games
Sugar Mess - Let's Play Jolly Battle $14.99 7 85% 210 $3.1k (exactly $3,148) JollyCo

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.