Should I ship a PvE FPS?
FPS + PvE
Of 469 developers who shipped a PvE FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,007 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 1,007 games are announced against 270 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper, while revenue is up 90% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $180 (exactly $180) |
|---|---|
| Median | $899 (exactly $899) |
| Top 25% | $11k (exactly $10,795) |
| Top 5% | $2.8M (exactly $2,829,984) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 469 |
| Released games | 1,348 |
| Announced | 1,007 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- FPS, PvE; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Combat
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 71% positive over 326,286 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 267 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,007 games are announced against 270 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + FaithFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + RunnerLong shot
- + Action RTSLong shot
- + Bullet HellLong shot
- + DogsLong shot
Comparable games
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition 2020 · $386M 
Dying Light 2015 · $280M 
Deep Rock Galactic 2020 · $273M 
Squad 2020 · $217M 
PAYDAY 2 2013 · $134M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition | older | $39.99 | 322,072 88% | 9.7M | $386M (exactly $386,389,778) | Rare Ltd |
| | Dying Light | older | $24.99 | 373,413 95% | 11M | $280M (exactly $279,947,726) | Techland |
| | Deep Rock Galactic | older | $29.99 | 303,142 97% | 9.1M | $273M (exactly $272,736,857) | Ghost Ship Games |
| | Squad | older | $39.99 | 180,505 82% | 5.4M | $217M (exactly $216,551,848) | Offworld |
| | PAYDAY 2 | older | $9.99 | 445,531 89% | 13M | $134M (exactly $133,525,641) | OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetr… (OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetrack Games) |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Darktide | older | $39.99 | 108,477 72% | 3.3M | $130M (exactly $130,139,857) | Fatshark |
 | Borderlands 4 | $69.99 | 57,874 59% | 1.7M | $122M (exactly $121,518,038) | Gearbox Software | |
 | Back 4 Blood | older | $59.99 | 55,160 69% | 1.7M | $99M (exactly $99,271,452) | Turtle Rock Studios |
 | Escape from Tarkov | $49.99 | 55,824 49% | 1.7M | $84M (exactly $83,719,253) | Battlestate Games | |
 | Gray Zone Warfare | · EA older | $39.99 | 69,146 72% | 2.1M | $83M (exactly $82,954,456) | MADFINGER Games, a.s. |
 | Marathon | $39.99 | 44,919 81% | 1.3M | $54M (exactly $53,889,324) | Bungie | |
 | Abiotic Factor | $34.99 | 42,075 95% | 1.3M | $44M (exactly $44,166,128) | Deep Field Games | |
 | Call of Duty®: Black Ops 6 | $69.99 | 14,063 44% | 422k | $30M (exactly $29,528,081) | Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High… (Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games, Infinity Ward, Demonware) | |
 | Starship Troopers: Extermination | $29.99 | 29,724 80% | 892k | $27M (exactly $26,742,683) | Offworld | |
 | Witchfire | · EA | $39.99 | 17,131 91% | 514k | $21M (exactly $20,552,061) | The Astronauts |
 | Killing Floor 3 | $39.99 | 16,493 46% | 495k | $20M (exactly $19,786,652) | Tripwire Interactive | |
 | Far Far West | · EA | $19.99 | 31,458 95% | 944k | $19M (exactly $18,865,363) | Evil Raptor |
 | No More Room in Hell 2 | $29.99 | 16,725 62% | 502k | $15M (exactly $15,047,482) | Torn Banner Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.