Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle FPS?

FPS + Puzzle

Of 286 developers who shipped a Puzzle FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 392 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $980, ×0.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300. 392 games are announced against 139 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper, while revenue is flat on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 392 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 286
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $1.6k → $900 → $1.9k → $1.0k → $719 → $959 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 286
Bottom 30% $297 (exactly $297)
Median $980 (exactly $980)
Top 25% $7.9k (exactly $7,910)
Top 5% $260k (exactly $260,140)
Developers, 2 yr 286
Released games 991
Announced 392
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, Puzzle; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 96,892 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $980, 1 in 4 over $7.9k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 203 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 392 games are announced against 139 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Portal 2 2011 · $117M Atomic Heart 2023 · $75M Half-Life 2 2004 · $61M Resident Evil 7 Biohazard 2017 · $53M Portal 2007 · $52M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Portal 2 older $9.99 390,412 98% 12M $117M (exactly $117,006,476) Valve
Atomic Heart older $59.99 41,690 81% 1.3M $75M (exactly $75,029,493) Mundfish
Half-Life 2 older $9.99 202,782 97% 6.1M $61M (exactly $60,773,765) Valve
Resident Evil 7 Biohazard older $19.99 87,806 95% 2.6M $53M (exactly $52,657,258) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Portal older $9.99 173,594 98% 5.2M $52M (exactly $52,026,122) Valve
BONEWORKS older $29.99 34,141 92% 1.0M $31M (exactly $30,716,658) Stress Level Zero
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Hello Neighbor older $29.99 26,329 87% 790k $24M (exactly $23,688,201) Dynamic Pixels
BONELAB older $39.99 18,670 82% 560k $22M (exactly $22,398,399) Stress Level Zero
Scorn older $49.99 14,546 77% 436k $22M (exactly $21,814,636) Ebb Software
Liar's Bar · EA $6.99 48,708 89% 1.5M $10M (exactly $10,214,068) Curve Animation
LOCKDOWN Protocol $9.99 16,605 86% 498k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,518) Mirage Creative Lab
Gunsmith Simulator $24.99 3,165 84% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,372,800) GameHunters
Crisol: Theater of Idols $17.99 4,103 85% 123k $2.2M (exactly $2,214,389) Vermila Studios
Supraworld · EA $29.99 1,471 91% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,459) Supra Games
The Talos Principle: Reawakened $39.99 1,085 90% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,301,674) Croteam
Hail to the Rainbow $14.99 2,533 90% 76k $1.1M (exactly $1,139,090) Носков Сергей
Heretic + Hexen $14.99 1,789 95% 54k $805k (exactly $804,513) id Software, Nightdive Studios
Metal Garden $5.99 4,375 96% 131k $786k (exactly $786,188) Tinerasoft

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.