Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic FPS?

FPS + Post-apocalyptic

Of 222 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 447 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×1.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×1810 the market median. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 447 games are announced against 118 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 447 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 222
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.5k → $1.8k → $1.2k → $2.1k → $1.9k → $2.1k → $3.0k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 222
Bottom 30% $537 (exactly $537)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,919)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,693)
Top 5% $2.7M (exactly $2,710,796)
Developers, 2 yr 222
Released games 671
Announced 447
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 309,276 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $2.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 119 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 447 games are announced against 118 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rust 2018 · $1.4B DayZ 2018 · $582M 7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M Dying Light 2015 · $280M Left 4 Dead 2 2009 · $245M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
Left 4 Dead 2 older $9.99 816,316 97% 24M $245M (exactly $244,649,905) Valve
Resident Evil Requiem $69.99 106,931 95% 3.2M $225M (exactly $224,523,021) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
Fallout 4 older $19.99 290,555 81% 8.7M $174M (exactly $174,245,834) Bethesda Game Studios
DOOM Eternal older $29.99 187,483 91% 5.6M $169M (exactly $168,678,455) id Software
Metro Exodus older $29.99 117,453 90% 3.5M $106M (exactly $105,672,464) 4A Games
Deadside $24.99 34,560 76% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,909,632) Bad Pixel
Drive Beyond Horizons · EA $24.99 17,903 77% 537k $13M (exactly $13,421,879) Drive Beyond Horizons
Deadzone: Rogue $24.99 15,041 82% 451k $11M (exactly $11,276,238) Prophecy Games
Atomfall $49.99 4,526 76% 136k $6.8M (exactly $6,787,642) Rebellion
Into the Radius 2 $39.99 5,253 79% 158k $6.3M (exactly $6,302,024) CM IMMERSIVE
Road to Vostok · EA $19.99 8,646 84% 259k $5.2M (exactly $5,185,006) Road to Vostok Ltd.
S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Shadow of Chornobyl - Enhanced Edition $19.99 6,619 65% 199k $4.0M (exactly $3,969,414) GSC Game World
PIONER · EA $29.99 3,205 62% 96k $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538) GFAGAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.