Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death FPS?

FPS + Perma Death

Of 68 developers who shipped a Perma Death FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 134 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×1.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $730k, ×492 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 134 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 134 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 68
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $629 → $839 → $2.9k → $5.8k → $7.8k → $2.4k → $418 (still earning) → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 68
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,693)
Top 5% $738k (exactly $737,705)
Developers, 2 yr 68
Released games 178
Announced 134
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, Perma Death; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 44,057 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $730k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 134 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hunt: Showdown 1896 2019 · $192M Roboquest 2023 · $14M Marauders 2022 · EA · $12M White Knuckle 2025 · EA · $6.8M Road to Vostok 2026 · EA · $5.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hunt: Showdown 1896 older $29.99 213,023 74% 6.4M $192M (exactly $191,656,793) Crytek
Roboquest older $24.99 19,158 95% 575k $14M (exactly $14,362,753) RyseUp Studios
Marauders · EA older $29.99 13,505 68% 405k $12M (exactly $12,150,448) Small Impact Games
White Knuckle · EA $16.99 13,356 98% 401k $6.8M (exactly $6,807,553) Dark Machine Games
Road to Vostok · EA $19.99 8,646 84% 259k $5.2M (exactly $5,185,006) Road to Vostok Ltd.
LOCKDOWN Protocol $9.99 16,605 86% 498k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,518) Mirage Creative Lab
Deadlink older $24.99 2,871 90% 86k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,389) Gruby Entertainment
ZOMBI older $19.99 2,964 64% 89k $1.8M (exactly $1,777,511) Straight Right
Immortal Redneck older $19.95 2,211 90% 66k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,284) Crema
Ziggurat older $14.99 2,835 86% 85k $1.3M (exactly $1,274,900) Milkstone Studios
Battle Shapers $24.99 984 80% 30k $738k (exactly $737,705) Metric Empire
CRUEL $9.99 1,814 95% 54k $544k (exactly $543,656) James Dornan
ODDCORE · EA $12.99 1,080 96% 32k $421k (exactly $420,876) ODDCORP
Soulslinger: Envoy of Death $19.99 472 63% 14k $283k (exactly $283,058) Elder Games
UNDERWARD $9.99 593 73% 18k $178k (exactly $177,722) INTENSE
Voidborn $12.99 349 81% 10k $136k (exactly $136,005) Xekvera
Fracture Point $19.99 158 81% 4.7k $95k (exactly $94,753) Kyrylo Burlaka

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.