Do I ship it?

GamesFPSFPS + Outbreak Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Outbreak Sim FPS?

FPS + Outbreak Sim

Only 11 developers shipped an Outbreak Sim FPS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, No More Room in Hell 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×2.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $15M, ×10045 the market median. Revenue is up 905% on the market; 19 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 905% on the market, 19 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Outbreak Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $955 → $4.0k → $30k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Outbreak Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $958 (exactly $958)
Median $4.0k (exactly $3,957)
Top 25% $125k (exactly $124,871)
Top 5% $15M (exactly $15,047,482)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 36
Announced 19
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 905% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Outbreak Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, Outbreak Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 61% positive over 17,884 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $15M.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No More Room in Hell 2 $29.99 16,725 62% 502k $15M (exactly $15,047,482) Torn Banner Studios
Project L33T: Founders Edition $19.99 525 47% 16k $315k (exactly $314,842) Targetpoint Interactive, Holmgard Games
Afterinfection $8.99 463 56% 14k $125k (exactly $124,871) RePatrick21
Perfect Heist older $4.99 398 76% 12k $60k (exactly $59,581) yeswecamp
Baby Blues Nightmares - Toddler Horror Game older $12.99 93 91% 2.8k $36k (exactly $36,242) Steelkrill Studio
Colonies of The Remnant · EA $13.99 71 7% 2.1k $30k (exactly $29,799) Cat Soul Studios
Zero Tolerance older $11.99 65 80% 2.0k $23k (exactly $23,380) Technopop
Quarantine Zombies: Contamination $9.99 74 48% 2.2k $22k (exactly $22,178) Stones Games
Last Generation: Survival older $19.99 20 50% 600 $12k (exactly $11,994) Furious Dogs
ZAR older $9.99 17 64% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) PancakeGames
Backrooms: Partygoers $11.99 11 90% 330 $4.0k (exactly $3,957) Mascot Bro Studio
Augmented Fear $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) OneFurInTheBox
The spring $3.99 8 75% 240 $958 (exactly $958) Akaji Games
Now $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Fetih Emirkulu
Chicken Up $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Chunky Cats Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.