Should I ship a Ninja FPS?
FPS + Ninja
Only 9 developers shipped a Ninja FPS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Fight School Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 more are announced.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.5k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $68k, ×45 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 8 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $240 (exactly $240) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.5k (exactly $1,498) |
| Top 25% | $2.9k (exactly $2,876) |
| Top 5% | $68k (exactly $68,032) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 33 |
| Announced | 8 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- FPS
- Price point
- $7.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 60,653 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + FaithFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + RunnerLong shot
- + Action RTSLong shot
- + Bullet HellLong shot
- + DogsLong shot
Comparable games
Shadow Warrior 2 2016 · $22M 
Shadow Warrior 2013 · $14M 
Shadow Warrior 3: Definitive Edition 2022 · $5.8M 
SENRAN KAGURA Peach Beach Splash 2018 · $3.5M 
Sairento VR 2018 · $1.3M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Shadow Warrior 2 | older | $29.99 | 24,120 87% | 724k | $22M (exactly $21,700,764) | Flying Wild Hog |
| | Shadow Warrior | older | $29.99 | 15,960 92% | 479k | $14M (exactly $14,359,212) | Flying Wild Hog |
| | Shadow Warrior 3: Definitive Edition | older | $39.99 | 4,820 69% | 145k | $5.8M (exactly $5,782,554) | Flying Wild Hog |
| | SENRAN KAGURA Peach Beach Splash | older | $29.99 | 3,885 81% | 117k | $3.5M (exactly $3,495,334) | Tamsoft |
| | Sairento VR | older | $29.99 | 1,448 86% | 43k | $1.3M (exactly $1,302,766) | Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holding… (Mixed Realms Pte Ltd, Swag Soft Holdings Pte Ltd) |
 | Shadow Warrior Classic Redux | older | $9.99 | 2,979 89% | 89k | $893k (exactly $892,806) | General Arcade |
 | Sword With Sauce | older | $4.99 | 5,762 86% | 173k | $863k (exactly $862,571) | Diatomic Studios |
 | Boomerang X | older | $19.99 | 1,228 95% | 37k | $736k (exactly $736,432) | DANG! |
 | Fight School Simulator | $9.99 | 227 88% | 6.8k | $68k (exactly $68,032) | Queen | |
 | NEKO-NIN exHeart 3 | older | $9.99 | 224 94% | 6.7k | $67k (exactly $67,133) | Whirlpool |
 | High Fructose | · EA | $9.99 | 29 89% | 870 | $8.7k (exactly $8,691) | Chazak Games |
 | Lightning Katana | $7.99 | 12 100% | 360 | $2.9k (exactly $2,876) | Juicy Pulp Games | |
 | Hellgate Senigallia Remake | $9.99 | 7 100% | 210 | $2.1k (exactly $2,098) | Rick Dope | |
 | 虚衝 - Kyosho | $9.99 | 5 80% | 150 | $1.5k (exactly $1,498) | むつむつプロジェクト（Mutsu'pro） | |
 | Sunset Street Ninja | $4.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $299 (exactly $299) | SkeletronMK, The1AndonlyBloo | |
 | Shuriken Practice 3 | $7.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $240 (exactly $240) | myBad Studios | |
 | Ninja Arena | $3.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $239 (exactly $239) | Lunar Code Studio | |
 | Ninja Vs Bomb | $3.00 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Sprem |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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