Do I ship it?

GamesFPSFPS + Mythology

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mythological FPS?

FPS + Mythology

Of 28 developers who shipped a Mythological FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.7k, ×3.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $650k, ×438 the market median. Revenue is up 325% on the market; 37 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 325% on the market, 37 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Mythology
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.0k → $1.2k → $2.2k → $8.3k → $2.4k → $17k (still earning) → $7.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Mythology: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $4.7k (exactly $4,725)
Top 25% $42k (exactly $41,734)
Top 5% $657k (exactly $656,815)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 76
Announced 37
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 325% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Mythology
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 5,232 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $4.7k, 1 in 4 over $41k, 1 in 20 over $650k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BLACKTAIL older $29.99 1,968 83% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,770,610) THE PARASIGHT
Labyrinth Of The Demon King $19.99 2,116 92% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,268,965) J. R. Hudepohl
Folklore Hunter $17.99 1,217 75% 37k $657k (exactly $656,815) Liquid Donkey Games
Unforgiving - A Northern Hymn older $14.99 1,437 82% 43k $646k (exactly $646,219) Angry Demon Studio
The Shore older $11.99 1,763 70% 53k $634k (exactly $634,151) Ares Dragonis
UMIGARI | ウミガリ $12.99 1,029 82% 31k $401k (exactly $401,001) Chilla's Art
Legendary older $5.99 2,184 57% 66k $392k (exactly $392,465) Spark Unlimited
The Axis Unseen $24.99 309 75% 9.3k $232k (exactly $231,657) Just Purkey Games
MetaPhysical older $14.99 288 83% 8.6k $130k (exactly $129,514) Paper Promises Programming
White Hell · EA older $14.99 192 94% 5.8k $86k (exactly $86,342) Robert Raulus, Mikko Tamper, Antti Allén
Death Relives $12.99 196 81% 5.9k $76k (exactly $76,381) Nyctophile Studios
Blood Rush · EA $14.49 161 98% 4.8k $70k (exactly $69,987) MaxEstLa
Vilde $15.99 87 74% 2.6k $42k (exactly $41,734) Chaotic Minds
Vienkiemis · EA $12.99 44 100% 1.3k $17k (exactly $17,147) dssob, SMEIVIS
Seth $12.99 36 77% 1.1k $14k (exactly $14,029) Chaotic Games
Steel Judgment · EA $9.99 37 100% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,089) Gid Is Dead

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.