Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon FPS?

FPS + Mystery Dungeon

Of 28 developers who shipped a Mystery Dungeon FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 13 developers shipped in the last year and 24 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 24 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.7k → $150 → $838 → $6.3k → $269 → $300 → $239 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $2.3k (exactly $2,338)
Top 5% $13k (exactly $13,250)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 75
Announced 24
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, Mystery Dungeon; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 747 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $13k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Nightmare Knight ~Sacred Maiden & Fallen Magic~ 2024 · $301k One More Dungeon 2 2022 · $65k [Chilla's Art] The Caregiver | 終焉介護 2021 · $65k ARKOS 2021 · $54k Rescue Operation 2021 · $30k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Nightmare Knight ~Sacred Maiden & Fallen Magic~ $17.99 557 86% 17k $301k (exactly $300,613) orzPINEz
One More Dungeon 2 older $14.99 144 81% 4.3k $65k (exactly $64,757) Stately Snail
[Chilla's Art] The Caregiver | 終焉介護 older $4.99 431 80% 13k $65k (exactly $64,521) Chilla's Art
ARKOS older $9.99 179 78% 5.4k $54k (exactly $53,646) RetroSouls
Rescue Operation older $3.99 253 87% 7.6k $30k (exactly $30,284) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
Naau: The Lost Eye older $24.99 28 67% 840 $21k (exactly $20,992) Studio Gamebit
Frame - Portals on Steroids older $16.99 35 91% 1.1k $18k (exactly $17,840) MechanicsDriven
ARKOS 2 $12.99 34 91% 1.0k $13k (exactly $13,250) RetroSouls
PENGUIN HOTEL 2 -Snake Penguin Ambition- $9.99 40 100% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,988) lemorion_1224
Masked Forces 2: Mystic Demons older $4.99 67 73% 2.0k $10k (exactly $10,030) FreezeNova
Digging the Forgotten Cave $4.99 54 75% 1.6k $8.1k (exactly $8,084) Cavernauts
Quantum Sleeper $8.99 18 100% 540 $4.9k (exactly $4,855) Helm Boy Studios
Goddess Scroll - The Last Starlight $9.99 11 27% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Revenge Red Eyes
Shadow of the Night $12.99 6 50% 180 $2.3k (exactly $2,338) Uğur ÇELİK
SaveShe $69.99 1 100% 30 $2.1k (exactly $2,100) shibahuax
Victim 10 PM $3.99 15 73% 450 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Manas Games
工廈 Warehouse $4.99 11 45% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Echo Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.