Should I ship a Modern-Day FPS?
FPS + Modern
Of 75 developers who shipped a Modern-Day FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 115 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×4.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $10M, ×6883 the market median. Revenue is up 285% on the market; 115 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $479 (exactly $479) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.3k (exactly $6,296) |
| Top 25% | $58k (exactly $57,571) |
| Top 5% | $10M (exactly $10,310,721) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 75 |
| Released games | 222 |
| Announced | 115 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 285% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- FPS; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Simulation
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 73% positive over 505,181 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 41 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 115 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + GamblingFair
- + FaithFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Martial ArtsFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + RunnerLong shot
- + Action RTSLong shot
- + Bullet HellLong shot
- + DogsLong shot
Comparable games
Battlefield™ 6 2025 · $620M 
Battlefield™ 2042 2021 · $468M 
Ready or Not 2023 · $398M 
Resident Evil Requiem 2026 · $225M 
Squad 2020 · $217M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Battlefield™ 6 | $69.99 | 295,442 63% | 8.9M | $620M (exactly $620,339,567) | Battlefield Studios | |
| | Battlefield™ 2042 | older | $59.99 | 260,308 49% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,476,308) | DICE |
| | Ready or Not | older | $49.99 | 265,219 79% | 8.0M | $398M (exactly $397,748,934) | VOID Interactive |
| | Resident Evil Requiem | $69.99 | 106,931 95% | 3.2M | $225M (exactly $224,523,021) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
| | Squad | older | $39.99 | 180,505 82% | 5.4M | $217M (exactly $216,551,848) | Offworld |
 | Gray Zone Warfare | · EA older | $39.99 | 69,146 72% | 2.1M | $83M (exactly $82,954,456) | MADFINGER Games, a.s. |
 | Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® | older | $59.99 | 43,229 79% | 1.3M | $78M (exactly $77,799,231) | Infinity Ward, Beenox, High Moon Studio… (Infinity Ward, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Raven Software) |
 | WARDOGS | · EA | $39.99 | 58,250 81% | 1.7M | $70M (exactly $69,882,525) | BULKHEAD |
 | Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® II | older | $69.99 | 26,543 45% | 796k | $56M (exactly $55,732,337) | Infinity Ward, Raven Software, Beenox,… (Infinity Ward, Raven Software, Beenox, Treyarch, High Moon Studios, Sledgehammer Games, Demonware, Toys for Bob) |
 | Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® III | older | $69.99 | 20,701 47% | 621k | $43M (exactly $43,465,890) | Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, Infinity… (Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, Infinity Ward, Beenox, Raven Software, High Moon Studios, Demonware) |
 | Car For Sale Simulator | $16.99 | 20,229 78% | 607k | $10M (exactly $10,310,721) | Red Axe Games | |
 | Onward | $24.99 | 8,621 69% | 259k | $6.5M (exactly $6,463,164) | Downpour Interactive | |
 | Car Dealer Simulator | $19.99 | 9,831 88% | 295k | $5.9M (exactly $5,895,651) | Garage Monkeys | |
 | Forefront | $27.99 | 1,913 84% | 57k | $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346) | Triangle Factory | |
 | Car Dealership Simulator 2 | · EA | $14.99 | 2,374 69% | 71k | $1.1M (exactly $1,067,588) | Quadfix Games |
 | Dagger Directive | $19.99 | 802 83% | 24k | $481k (exactly $480,959) | Arcane Alpacas LLC | |
 | Alpha Response | · EA | $19.99 | 788 77% | 24k | $473k (exactly $472,564) | Ultimo Ratio Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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