Do I ship it?

GamesFPSFPS + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian FPS?

FPS + Lovecraftian

Of 36 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 85 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.1k, ×5.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×268 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 85 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 85 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $6.6k → $6.6k → $59k → $34k → $125k → $1.9k (still earning) → $3.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Median $8.1k (exactly $8,092)
Top 25% $70k (exactly $70,153)
Top 5% $401k (exactly $401,001)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 106
Announced 85
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 4,907 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.0k, median $8.1k, 1 in 4 over $70k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 6 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 85 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Scorn older $49.99 14,546 77% 436k $22M (exactly $21,814,636) Ebb Software
DUSK older $19.99 22,073 97% 662k $13M (exactly $13,237,178) David Szymanski
Call of Cthulhu® older $19.99 10,962 79% 329k $6.6M (exactly $6,573,911) Cyanide Studio
Blood West older $24.99 6,132 90% 184k $4.6M (exactly $4,597,160) Hyperstrange
Gloomwood · EA older $19.99 7,495 95% 225k $4.5M (exactly $4,494,752) Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Be… (Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Berens, Thomas Porta)
CULTIC older $9.99 8,027 97% 241k $2.4M (exactly $2,405,692) Jasozz Games
Vertigo 2 older $29.99 2,579 95% 77k $2.3M (exactly $2,320,326) Zach Tsiakalis-Brown
Devil Daggers older $9.99 7,442 96% 223k $2.2M (exactly $2,230,367) Sorath
Forgive Me Father older $19.99 3,705 84% 111k $2.2M (exactly $2,221,888) Byte Barrel
HYPER DEMON older $14.99 3,087 94% 93k $1.4M (exactly $1,388,224) Sorath
Forgive Me Father 2 $24.99 1,500 81% 45k $1.1M (exactly $1,124,550) Byte Barrel
UMIGARI | ウミガリ $12.99 1,029 82% 31k $401k (exactly $401,001) Chilla's Art
Stygian: Outer Gods · EA $24.99 516 80% 15k $387k (exactly $386,845) Misterial Games
Viscerafest $19.99 540 87% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) Acid Man Games, Fire Plant Games
Zombie Army VR $29.99 182 44% 5.5k $164k (exactly $163,745) Rebellion, Xtended Realities
Beneath $19.99 262 69% 7.9k $157k (exactly $157,121) Camel 101
Dementium: The Ward $14.99 277 87% 8.3k $125k (exactly $124,567) Atooi
Find the Demon 恶魔鉴定守则 $7.99 346 89% 10k $83k (exactly $82,936) SHAKINO_UNION
HYPERVIOLENT $14.99 156 67% 4.7k $70k (exactly $70,153) nfoPRINCE, Terminist Arcade
Pneumata $19.99 99 48% 3.0k $59k (exactly $59,370) Deadbolt Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.