Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Loot

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot FPS?

FPS + Loot

Of 45 developers who shipped a Loot FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 124 more are announced, ×5.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $18k, ×12 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $18M, ×12594 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 124 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 124 announced, ×5.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Loot
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.5k → $6.0k → $3.2k → $3.6k → $17k → $112k → $315k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Loot: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $18k (exactly $17,538)
Top 25% $182k (exactly $181,665)
Top 5% $19M (exactly $18,865,363)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 157
Announced 124
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, Loot; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, PvE
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 147,077 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $18k, 1 in 4 over $180k, 1 in 20 over $18M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 6 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 124 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Deep Rock Galactic 2020 · $273M Borderlands 3 2020 · $230M Borderlands 2 2012 · $126M Borderlands 4 2025 · $122M Gunfire Reborn 2021 · $53M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
Borderlands 3 older $59.99 127,847 81% 3.8M $230M (exactly $230,086,246) Gearbox Software
Borderlands 2 older $19.99 210,364 89% 6.3M $126M (exactly $126,155,291) Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (L… (Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Gunfire Reborn older $19.99 88,536 93% 2.7M $53M (exactly $53,095,039) Gunfire Reborn Studio
Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel older $39.99 31,771 79% 953k $38M (exactly $38,115,669) 2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (… (2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Linux))
Shadow Warrior 2 older $29.99 24,120 87% 724k $22M (exactly $21,700,764) Flying Wild Hog
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor
Borderlands Game of the Year Enhanced older $29.99 18,217 81% 547k $16M (exactly $16,389,835) Gearbox Software, Blind Squirrel Games
Deadzone: Rogue $24.99 15,041 82% 451k $11M (exactly $11,276,238) Prophecy Games
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
Road to Vostok · EA $19.99 8,646 84% 259k $5.2M (exactly $5,185,006) Road to Vostok Ltd.
Total Chaos $24.99 1,561 86% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,170,282) Trigger Happy Interactive
The Midnight Walkers · EA $19.99 1,479 54% 44k $887k (exactly $886,956) Oneway Ticket Studio
Wizordum $19.99 880 91% 26k $528k (exactly $527,736) Emberheart Games
Active Matter $29.99 522 75% 16k $470k (exactly $469,643) Matter Team

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.