Do I ship it?

GamesFPSFPS + Logic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Logic FPS?

FPS + Logic

Of 57 developers who shipped a Logic FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 69 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300. 69 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper, while revenue is up 175% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 175% on the market, 69 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Logic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 57
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $449 → $1.5k → $359 → $748 → $479 → $2.0k (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Logic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 57
Bottom 30% $297 (exactly $297)
Median $629 (exactly $629)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 5% $243k (exactly $242,871)
Developers, 2 yr 57
Released games 143
Announced 69
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 175% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, Logic; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 5,054 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $630, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 69 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Talos Principle: Reawakened $39.99 1,085 90% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,301,674) Croteam
Brickadia · EA $19.99 1,269 81% 38k $761k (exactly $761,019) Brickadia, LLC
Nucleares older $14.99 1,121 84% 34k $504k (exactly $504,114) Iván Marcelo Pretti
Lightmatter older $19.99 691 94% 21k $414k (exactly $414,393) Tunnel Vision Games
The Ball older $9.99 830 74% 25k $249k (exactly $248,751) Teotl Studios
Rhythia · EA $3.99 2,029 83% 61k $243k (exactly $242,871) Capo Games
ChromaGun 2: Dye Hard $19.99 117 91% 3.5k $70k (exactly $70,165) Pixel Maniacs
Remoteness older $19.99 98 61% 2.9k $59k (exactly $58,771) KR Games
Device Doctor Simulator 2024 $9.99 186 62% 5.6k $56k (exactly $55,744) Tenacity Games
Iridio $19.99 87 86% 2.6k $52k (exactly $52,174) KR Games
Model Kit Shop Simulator $9.99 90 87% 2.7k $27k (exactly $26,973) Tenacity Games
SECTOR ZERO $3.99 138 93% 4.1k $17k (exactly $16,519) Ondrej Angelovic
Puzzle Parasite $14.99 29 93% 870 $13k (exactly $13,041) Wrenfall
Time Hacker $14.99 24 70% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Joy Way

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.