Do I ship it?

GamesFPSFPS + JRPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a JRPG FPS?

FPS + JRPG

Only 14 developers shipped a JRPG FPS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Endless Alice, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $19k, ×12 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $8.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×415 the market median. Revenue is up 285% on the market; 17 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 285% on the market, 17 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + JRPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $28k → $18k → $53k → $301k → $958 → $18k → $45k (still earning) → $30 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + JRPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $8.7k (exactly $8,691)
Median $19k (exactly $18,693)
Top 25% $101k (exactly $101,138)
Top 5% $622k (exactly $622,198)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 145
Announced 17
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $0.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 285% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
JRPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, JRPG
Price point
$0.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 5,359 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $8.7k, median $19k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $620k.

3 in 10 developers made under $8.7k. 9 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Summer Memories older $19.99 24,113 92% 723k $14M (exactly $14,460,566) Dojin Otome
Sword Art Online: Fatal Bullet older $19.99 15,461 79% 464k $9.3M (exactly $9,271,962) Dimps Corporation
Azur Lane Crosswave older $39.99 6,537 68% 196k $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA
Winter Memories older $19.99 10,365 97% 311k $6.2M (exactly $6,215,890) Dojin Otome
Living With Sister: Monochrome Fantasy older $12.99 15,119 69% 454k $5.9M (exactly $5,891,874) Inusuku
Yarimono older $24.99 4,011 86% 120k $3.0M (exactly $3,007,047) にゅう工房
DEAD OR SCHOOL older $24.99 2,607 84% 78k $2.0M (exactly $1,954,468) Studio Nanafushi
Magical Girl Celesphonia older $19.99 3,099 95% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,858,470) Shimobashira Workshop
The Arrogant Kaiju Princess and The Detective Servant older $14.99 3,468 96% 104k $1.6M (exactly $1,559,560) ARTcelerator, PantyParrot
Ambrosia older $14.99 2,646 93% 79k $1.2M (exactly $1,189,906) Shimobashira Workshop
Endless Alice · EA $8.99 2,307 91% 69k $622k (exactly $622,198) HowlingRain, 台灣響雨互娛, 響雨@OSAKA
Natsu no Sagashimono ~What We Found That Summer~ $14.99 1,094 87% 33k $492k (exactly $491,972) pekoge-sutagio
Nightmare Knight ~Sacred Maiden & Fallen Magic~ $17.99 557 86% 17k $301k (exactly $300,613) orzPINEz
每日亲亲洛丽塔 $8.99 375 74% 11k $101k (exactly $101,138) 夜羊社
Imouto Paradise! 3 $24.99 66 92% 2.0k $49k (exactly $49,480) MOONSTONE
Secrets of the Heart $9.99 150 91% 4.5k $45k (exactly $44,955) FallingDay
Service with a Shotgun $6.70 93 94% 2.8k $19k (exactly $18,693) Nolyn Vansyckle
Spiritual Bond ~Breaking the curse, Intertwining fates~ $5.99 98 82% 2.9k $18k (exactly $17,611) MONRA
ENCOUNTER BAR $0.99 590 78% 18k $18k (exactly $17,523) 2R
Mind Control: Bloody Renaissance $9.99 29 100% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) BYYONI Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.