Do I ship it?

GamesFPSFPS + Investigation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Investigation FPS?

FPS + Investigation

Of 80 developers who shipped an Investigation FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 157 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×0.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×869 the market median. Revenue is up 120% on the market; 157 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 120% on the market, 157 announced, ×5.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Investigation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 80
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $1.9k → $1.5k → $1.6k → $1.0k → $1.0k → $1.1k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Investigation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 80
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,050)
Top 25% $7.9k (exactly $7,910)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,301,674)
Developers, 2 yr 80
Released games 207
Announced 157
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 120% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, Investigation; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 42,880 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $7.9k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 9 in 10 of the 58 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 157 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
LOCKDOWN Protocol $9.99 16,605 86% 498k $5.0M (exactly $4,976,518) Mirage Creative Lab
Species: Unknown · EA $9.99 9,437 94% 283k $2.8M (exactly $2,828,269) WanadevStudio
Lay a Beauty to Rest: The Darkness Peach Blossom Spring older $13.99 6,310 95% 189k $2.6M (exactly $2,648,307) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
The Talos Principle: Reawakened $39.99 1,085 90% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,301,674) Croteam
White Noise 2 older $9.99 2,228 80% 67k $668k (exactly $667,732) Milkstone Studios
Nucleares older $14.99 1,121 84% 34k $504k (exactly $504,114) Iván Marcelo Pretti
USAC: Code Breach older $14.99 1,067 91% 32k $480k (exactly $479,830) Questions Factory
Supernatural older $8.99 1,180 63% 35k $318k (exactly $318,246) Hitori De Productions
Killing Time: Resurrected $24.99 320 92% 9.6k $240k (exactly $239,904) Nightdive Studios, 3DO
The Skin Stapler $14.99 457 90% 14k $206k (exactly $205,513) Tainted Pact
BACKROOMS: APPREHENSION $2.99 1,371 83% 41k $123k (exactly $122,979) DMNT Interactive
Pneumata $19.99 99 48% 3.0k $59k (exactly $59,370) Deadbolt Interactive
Dreadweave · EA $9.99 105 72% 3.2k $31k (exactly $31,468) DeadGrass Games
Jaden Williams' The Stalking Stairs $2.99 343 88% 10k $31k (exactly $30,767) Jaden Williams

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.