Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental FPS?

FPS + Incremental

Of 28 developers who shipped an Incremental FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270, ×0.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. Revenue is down 75% on the market, with 34 games announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 34 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $4.2k → $1.8k → $356 → $240 → $267 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $267 (exactly $267)
Top 25% $4.6k (exactly $4,641)
Top 5% $14k (exactly $13,552)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 68
Announced 34
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 265% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, Incremental; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Interactive Fiction, Adventure
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $5.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $5.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 721 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $270, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $13k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Lost2 2022 · $663k Time Warpers 2020 · $296k Dreamlike Love with Seira 2024 · $289k Kon's Lesson! 2023 · $168k Zup! Zero 2017 · $154k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lost2 older $15.99 1,382 81% 41k $663k (exactly $662,945) DSGame
Time Warpers older $19.99 493 82% 15k $296k (exactly $295,652) Proton Studio Inc
Dreamlike Love with Seira older $6.99 1,377 98% 41k $289k (exactly $288,757) るび様崇める会
Kon's Lesson! older $9.99 560 88% 17k $168k (exactly $167,832) Fox House
Zup! Zero older $1.99 2,572 93% 77k $154k (exactly $153,548) Quiet River
Swaying Girl older $0.99 4,852 89% 146k $144k (exactly $144,104) Wet Girl
KUNKUN Defender older $2.99 822 97% 25k $74k (exactly $73,733) Seal
Seek Girl Ⅶ older $1.99 1,197 70% 36k $71k (exactly $71,461) DSGame
C-4 older $24.99 48 93% 1.4k $36k (exactly $35,986) Microblast Games
Sniper Camouflage Orange Spy Warrior I Buried Two Bodies in the Garden and the Police Haven't Figured Out Yet That They're Missing Because They Were a Lonely Old Couple Who Had No Relatives Simulator 2026 · EA $9.99 77 66% 2.3k $23k (exactly $23,077) The Only Way Out
广式双马尾的报恩 $1.99 227 99% 6.8k $14k (exactly $13,552) lamb of game
Farming Incremental But With Guns $3.99 113 88% 3.4k $14k (exactly $13,526) Clementine Wolf Games
Paper2Galgame · EA $5.99 75 88% 2.3k $13k (exactly $13,478) TamikiP
Paperwork $3.99 92 95% 2.8k $11k (exactly $11,012) Broken Record Studio
GAME.exe 2 - Phantom Strike $5.99 34 76% 1.0k $6.1k (exactly $6,110) Punx Studios
Moorhuhn 2 $4.99 31 96% 930 $4.6k (exactly $4,641) Higgs Games GmbH, GeekPit Studio
Moorhuhn Winter Edition $4.99 20 90% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) Higgs Games GmbH, GeekPit Studio
Sewing Machine Simulator $2.99 29 75% 870 $2.6k (exactly $2,601) 易烦工作室
APPLECALYPSE $2.99 23 95% 690 $2.1k (exactly $2,063) Pupicrap

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.