Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Heist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Heist FPS?

FPS + Heist

Only 17 developers shipped a Heist FPS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Crime Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×1874 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 48 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 48 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Heist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $1.6k → $480 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Heist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,559)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,390)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,807,927)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 62
Announced 48
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 140% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Heist
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Co-op
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 7,359 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $2.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 48 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

PAYDAY 2 2013 · $134M Call of Duty®: WWII 2017 · $60M PAYDAY 3 2023 · $44M Just Cause 4 Reloaded 2018 · $28M Thief Simulator 2018 · $22M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
PAYDAY 2 older $9.99 445,531 89% 13M $134M (exactly $133,525,641) OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetr… (OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetrack Games)
Call of Duty®: WWII older $59.99 33,576 71% 1.0M $60M (exactly $60,426,727) Sledgehammer Games, Raven Software
PAYDAY 3 older $29.99 49,305 45% 1.5M $44M (exactly $44,359,708) Starbreeze Studios
Just Cause 4 Reloaded older $39.64 23,358 63% 701k $28M (exactly $27,777,334) Avalanche Studios
Thief Simulator older $19.99 37,377 88% 1.1M $22M (exactly $22,414,987) Noble Muffins
Thief older $19.99 17,389 75% 522k $10M (exactly $10,428,183) Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac)
Sniper Ghost Warrior 3 older $19.99 15,133 67% 454k $9.1M (exactly $9,075,260) CI Games
PAYDAY™ The Heist older $9.99 21,870 92% 656k $6.6M (exactly $6,554,439) OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio.
Crime Boss: Rockay City older $19.99 8,553 68% 257k $5.1M (exactly $5,129,234) INGAME STUDIOS
To Be or Not to Be older $12.99 8,035 89% 241k $3.1M (exactly $3,131,240) Team K
Crime Simulator $14.99 6,244 82% 187k $2.8M (exactly $2,807,927) CookieDev
Brush Burial: Gutter World $9.99 838 93% 25k $251k (exactly $251,149) Knife Demon Software
OPG: Clan Wars $9.99 101 74% 3.0k $30k (exactly $30,270) Anarchy Games, Street's Game
Hazard Levels · EA $9.99 70 71% 2.1k $21k (exactly $20,979) Wales Interactive
Vendetta Forever $19.99 34 76% 1.0k $20k (exactly $20,390) Meatspace Interactive
The Memory Thieves · EA $6.99 40 80% 1.2k $8.4k (exactly $8,388) Otherside Studio
No Knock $9.99 16 50% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) No Knock
PolyCrime · EA $9.99 6 66% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) FoxGameDev
Heist Haven · EA $12.99 4 0% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) Somehow Games
Smoke Shop Simulator · EA $3.99 6 0% 180 $718 (exactly $718) Anka Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.