Do I ship it?

GamesFPSFPS + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led FPS?

FPS + Female Protagonist

Of 125 developers who shipped a Female-Led FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 187 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.8k, ×3.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×769 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 187 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 187 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 125
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $2.1k → $9.2k → $7.3k → $4.5k → $5.8k → $16k (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 125
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,077)
Median $5.8k (exactly $5,846)
Top 25% $41k (exactly $40,780)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,151,424)
Developers, 2 yr 125
Released games 585
Announced 187
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Adventure
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 183,555 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $5.8k, 1 in 4 over $40k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 8 in 10 of the 88 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 187 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
Resident Evil Requiem $69.99 106,931 95% 3.2M $225M (exactly $224,523,021) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Half-Life: Alyx older $59.99 93,001 98% 2.8M $167M (exactly $167,373,900) Valve
Portal 2 older $9.99 390,412 98% 12M $117M (exactly $117,006,476) Valve
Slime Rancher older $19.99 139,509 98% 4.2M $84M (exactly $83,663,547) Monomi Park
Call of Duty®: WWII older $59.99 33,576 71% 1.0M $60M (exactly $60,426,727) Sledgehammer Games, Raven Software
Far Cry® 6 older $59.99 33,280 71% 998k $60M (exactly $59,894,016) Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubis… (Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Berlin)
Alien: Isolation older $39.99 48,591 92% 1.5M $58M (exactly $58,294,623) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive (M… (Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Portal older $9.99 173,594 98% 5.2M $52M (exactly $52,026,122) Valve
Slime Rancher 2 $29.99 43,590 94% 1.3M $39M (exactly $39,217,923) Monomi Park
Subverse $39.99 13,781 66% 413k $17M (exactly $16,533,066) Studio FOW Interactive
Romantic Escapades $19.99 5,587 94% 168k $3.4M (exactly $3,350,524) 蠑螈
Beyond Citadel $14.99 4,417 96% 133k $2.0M (exactly $1,986,325) doekuramori
Hello Love: 18 Again $19.99 2,075 92% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,244,378) 念念而忘(Echofall Studio)
METAL EDEN $19.99 1,920 84% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,151,424) Reikon Games
PIGFACE · EA $12.99 2,598 96% 78k $1.0M (exactly $1,012,441) titolovesyou
Skin Deep $19.99 1,672 94% 50k $1.0M (exactly $1,002,698) Blendo Games
Battle Shapers $24.99 984 80% 30k $738k (exactly $737,705) Metric Empire

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.