Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + FMV

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an FMV FPS?

FPS + FMV

Only 13 developers shipped an FMV FPS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Hello Love: 18 Again, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 11 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $66k against a market of $1.5k. 11 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 43.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 8475% on the market, 11 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + FMV
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $129k → $599 → $166k
Outcomes for FPS + FMV: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $66k (exactly $65,634)
Top 25% $311k (exactly $310,645)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,244,378)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 43
Announced 11
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 8475% on the market, supply 55% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
FMV
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, FMV
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 7,902 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $66k, 1 in 4 over $310k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 11 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mirror 2: Project X 2022 · EA · $6.6M Succubus Cafe 2021 · $2.0M Command & Conquer™ Generals Zero Hour 2024 · $1.3M Hello Love: 18 Again 2025 · $1.2M Starship Troopers: Ultimate Bug War! 2026 · $1.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mirror 2: Project X · EA older $1.99 111,251 24% 3.3M $6.6M (exactly $6,641,685) KAGAMI Ⅱ WORKs
Succubus Cafe older $29.99 2,260 89% 68k $2.0M (exactly $2,033,322) MIGI STUDIO
Command & Conquer™ Generals Zero Hour older $6.96 6,131 91% 184k $1.3M (exactly $1,280,153) EA Pacific
Hello Love: 18 Again $19.99 2,075 92% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,244,378) 念念而忘(Echofall Studio)
Starship Troopers: Ultimate Bug War! $24.99 1,352 92% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,013,594) Auroch Digital
哎呦!这么多美女呀! $18.99 609 91% 18k $347k (exactly $346,947) Hangzhou Miqi Technology Co.,Ltd
STAR WARS™ Jedi Knight: Dark Forces II older $5.99 1,861 80% 56k $334k (exactly $334,422) LucasArts
Don't Stop, Girlypop! $19.99 518 83% 16k $311k (exactly $310,645) Funny Fintan Softworks
Killing Time: Resurrected $24.99 320 92% 9.6k $240k (exactly $239,904) Nightdive Studios, 3DO
City Lights Love Bites Season 0 [Pilot Season] $2.00 2,766 94% 83k $166k (exactly $165,960) NaughtyOba
女神氪金系统 $9.99 219 89% 6.6k $66k (exactly $65,634) 有一小间工作室
Captain Gazman Day Of The Rage $6.99 31 96% 930 $6.5k (exactly $6,501) Les Kalifas, Kazarma, VEB Videospielewe… (Les Kalifas, Kazarma, VEB Videospielewerk 'Bewegungsdruiden')
One Rotten Oath $6.99 10 100% 300 $2.1k (exactly $2,097) Piotr Bunkowski
Bodycam:Adrenaline $9.99 2 0% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Rocket Game

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.