Do I ship it?

Games › Flight › Flight + Vehicular Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Vehicular Combat Flight game?

Flight + Vehicular Combat

Of 68 developers who shipped a Vehicular Combat Flight game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 146 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×483 the market median. Revenue is up 440% on the market; 146 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 440% on the market, 146 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Flight + Vehicular Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 68
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $210 → $539 → $299 → $360 → $449 → $1.8k → $450 (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Flight + Vehicular Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 68
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $10,778)
Top 5% $303k (exactly $303,448)
Developers, 2 yr 68
Released games 221
Announced 146
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 440% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Vehicular Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Flight, Vehicular Combat; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Combat
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 1990's
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 10,469 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $540, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $300k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 146 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Flight with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 10 announced
  3. + Quick-Time EventsFair9 devs · median $657 · 9 announced
  4. + CatsFair6 devs · median $629 · 10 announced
  5. + Life SimPoor odds12 devs · median $70k · 29 announced
  6. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  7. + MiningPoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 13 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 57 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 48 announced
  10. + EconomyPoor odds20 devs · median $15k · 45 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 18 announced
  12. + Cold WarPoor odds10 devs · median $11k · 16 announced

All 132 pairs on the Flight page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Trailmakers 2019 · $25M Besiege 2020 · $22M VTOL VR 2017 · $18M Avorion 2020 · $9.7M SimplePlanes 2015 · $3.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Trailmakers older $24.99 33,465 92% 1.0M $25M (exactly $25,088,710) Flashbulb
Besiege older $14.99 48,045 95% 1.4M $22M (exactly $21,605,836) Spiderling Studios
VTOL VR older $29.99 19,885 98% 597k $18M (exactly $17,890,534) Boundless Dynamics, LLC
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
SimplePlanes older $12.99 9,811 93% 294k $3.8M (exactly $3,823,347) Jundroo, LLC
Cleared Hot · EA $17.99 3,934 96% 118k $2.1M (exactly $2,123,180) Not Knowing Corporation
Lost Skies $24.99 2,470 63% 74k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,759) Bossa Studios
BallisticNG older $14.99 2,285 95% 69k $1.0M (exactly $1,027,564) Neognosis
Tiny Combat Arena · EA older $19.99 1,511 81% 45k $906k (exactly $906,147) Why485, MicroProse Software
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
Echoes of Elysium · EA $19.99 506 61% 15k $303k (exactly $303,448) Loric Games, Inc.
G-Rebels · EA $29.99 254 79% 7.6k $229k (exactly $228,524) Reakktor Studios
Metal Thunder · EA $10.99 567 76% 17k $187k (exactly $186,940) Dumbbell Games
Drone Sector · EA $16.99 366 89% 11k $187k (exactly $186,550) Icosphere
ROGUE FLIGHT $19.99 279 96% 8.4k $167k (exactly $167,316) Truant Pixel, LLC
Wild Blue Skies $14.99 251 58% 7.5k $113k (exactly $112,875) Chuhai Labs, VITEI BACKROOM Inc.
F-22: Air Dominance Fighter $19.99 138 91% 4.1k $83k (exactly $82,759) Digital Image Design Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.