Do I ship it?

GamesFlightFlight + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Flight game?

Flight + Crafting

Only 14 developers shipped a Crafting Flight game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SpaceBourne 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $19k, ×30 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $6.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.9M, ×4728 the market median. Revenue is up 9270% on the market; 57 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 29.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 9270% on the market, 57 announced, ×5.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Flight + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $23k → $1.9M → $18k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Flight + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $6.0k (exactly $5,998)
Median $19k (exactly $18,742)
Top 25% $303k (exactly $303,448)
Top 5% $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 65
Announced 57
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 9270% on the market, supply 265% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Flight, Crafting; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Adventure, Building
Price point
$19.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 17,538 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $6.0k, median $19k, 1 in 4 over $300k, 1 in 20 over $2.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $6.0k. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Flight with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 10 announced
  3. + Quick-Time EventsFair9 devs · median $657 · 9 announced
  4. + CatsFair6 devs · median $629 · 10 announced
  5. + Life SimPoor odds12 devs · median $70k · 29 announced
  6. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  7. + MiningPoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 13 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 48 announced
  9. + EconomyPoor odds20 devs · median $15k · 45 announced
  10. + RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 18 announced
  11. + Cold WarPoor odds10 devs · median $11k · 16 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds26 devs · median $9.7k · 67 announced

All 132 pairs on the Flight page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Trailmakers older $24.99 33,465 92% 1.0M $25M (exactly $25,088,710) Flashbulb
Liftoff®: FPV Drone Racing older $19.99 13,633 95% 409k $8.2M (exactly $8,175,710) LuGus Studios
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
Aviassembly · EA $9.99 9,323 96% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) Jelle Booij
Lost Skies $24.99 2,470 63% 74k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,759) Bossa Studios
No Time · EA older $12.99 2,117 97% 64k $825k (exactly $824,995) Lost in Days Studio
Spirit Realm · EA older $18.18 1,379 76% 41k $752k (exactly $752,107) 深圳市灵境互娱科技有限公司
The Brew Barons older $21.99 828 75% 25k $546k (exactly $546,232) Lifetap Studios
Aquanox Deep Descent older $29.99 463 48% 14k $417k (exactly $416,561) Digital Arrow
Echoes of Elysium · EA $19.99 506 61% 15k $303k (exactly $303,448) Loric Games, Inc.
Lou's Lagoon $24.99 126 75% 3.8k $94k (exactly $94,462) Tiny Roar
HELL GALAXY $24.99 89 74% 2.7k $67k (exactly $66,723) Italian Games Factory
Keplerian Space Discovery · EA $24.99 25 88% 750 $19k (exactly $18,742) Kugelblitz
XFlight: FPV Drone Simulator $24.99 24 79% 720 $18k (exactly $17,993) Lingsrealm Technology
Tutien Path $14.99 16 81% 480 $7.2k (exactly $7,195) Truong Thanh Triet
Wings of Aviora · EA $24.99 8 87% 240 $6.0k (exactly $5,998) Stormy XP

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.