Do I ship it?

GamesFlightFlight + Survival

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Flight Survival game?

Flight + Survival

Of 28 developers who shipped a Flight Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2605 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 63 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 63 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Flight + Survival
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $653 → $1.5k → $9.4k → $53k → $269 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Flight + Survival: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Top 25% $166k (exactly $166,389)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 136
Announced 63
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Flight, Survival; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Physics, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 8,387 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $160k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 6 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Flight with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 10 announced
  3. + Quick-Time EventsFair9 devs · median $657 · 9 announced
  4. + CatsFair6 devs · median $629 · 10 announced
  5. + Life SimPoor odds12 devs · median $70k · 29 announced
  6. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  7. + MiningPoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 13 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 57 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 48 announced
  10. + EconomyPoor odds20 devs · median $15k · 45 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 18 announced
  12. + Cold WarPoor odds10 devs · median $11k · 16 announced

All 132 pairs on the Flight page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
Trailmakers older $24.99 33,465 92% 1.0M $25M (exactly $25,088,710) Flashbulb
EVERSPACE™ older $19.99 9,809 77% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,882,457) ROCKFISH Games
Bomber Crew older $15.99 10,416 88% 312k $5.0M (exactly $4,996,555) Runner Duck
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Between the Stars older $29.99 1,965 75% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,767,910) Isolated Games
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
轮回修仙路 older $16.99 2,945 82% 88k $1.5M (exactly $1,501,066) 烟水寒工作室
No Time · EA older $12.99 2,117 97% 64k $825k (exactly $824,995) Lost in Days Studio
Ukrainian Fight Drone Simulator (UFDS) - FPV drone simulator $29.99 800 80% 24k $720k (exactly $719,760) SIMTECH SOLUTIONS
Echoes of Elysium · EA $19.99 506 61% 15k $303k (exactly $303,448) Loric Games, Inc.
Firehawk: FPV Drone Shooter $19.99 494 91% 15k $296k (exactly $296,252) TruePlayers
Whisker Squadron: Survivor $19.99 485 77% 15k $291k (exactly $290,854) Flippfly LLC
Time Flies $14.99 370 96% 11k $166k (exactly $166,389) Playables
Airships: Lost Flotilla $8.99 290 92% 8.7k $78k (exactly $78,213) David Stark
I Fetch Rocks $15.99 110 94% 3.3k $53k (exactly $52,767) SarumXR
The AC130 slays the zombies. $3.99 377 63% 11k $45k (exactly $45,127) 汪双羽

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.