Do I ship it?

Games › Flight › Flight + Science

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Science Flight game?

Flight + Science

Only 17 developers shipped a Science Flight game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SpaceBourne 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $89; 1 in 20 cleared $2.9M, ×4728 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 30 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 30 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Flight + Science
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $6.3k → $899 → $53k → $599 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Flight + Science: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,742)
Top 5% $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 72
Announced 30
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Science
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Flight; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Physics, Simulation, Space Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 15,800 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $600, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $2.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Flight with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 10 announced
  3. + Quick-Time EventsFair9 devs · median $657 · 9 announced
  4. + CatsFair6 devs · median $629 · 10 announced
  5. + Life SimPoor odds12 devs · median $70k · 29 announced
  6. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  7. + MiningPoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 13 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 57 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 48 announced
  10. + EconomyPoor odds20 devs · median $15k · 45 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 18 announced
  12. + Cold WarPoor odds10 devs · median $11k · 16 announced

All 132 pairs on the Flight page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

SpaceEngine 2019 · EA · $14M Liftoff®: FPV Drone Racing 2018 · $8.2M Uncrashed : FPV Drone Simulator 2021 · $3.5M Starpoint Gemini 2 2014 · $3.2M SpaceBourne 2 2025 · $3.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SpaceEngine · EA older $29.99 15,826 96% 475k $14M (exactly $14,238,652) Cosmographic Software
Liftoff®: FPV Drone Racing older $19.99 13,633 95% 409k $8.2M (exactly $8,175,710) LuGus Studios
Uncrashed : FPV Drone Simulator older $14.99 7,770 95% 233k $3.5M (exactly $3,494,169) Luminite
Starpoint Gemini 2 older $34.99 3,021 70% 91k $3.2M (exactly $3,171,144) Little Green Men Games
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
Aviassembly · EA $9.99 9,323 96% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) Jelle Booij
Star Trek: Infinite older $29.99 3,030 41% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,726,091) Nimble Giant Entertainment
Juno: New Origins older $19.99 3,085 89% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,850,074) Jundroo, LLC
TRYP FPV: Drone Racer Simulator · EA older $16.99 3,155 85% 95k $1.6M (exactly $1,608,103) UNDEAD BATTERY
Reentry - A Space Flight Simulator $34.99 1,319 97% 40k $1.4M (exactly $1,384,554) Lyra Creative
I Fetch Rocks $15.99 110 94% 3.3k $53k (exactly $52,767) SarumXR
Keplerian Space Discovery · EA $24.99 25 88% 750 $19k (exactly $18,742) Kugelblitz
Hotloop $2.99 47 85% 1.4k $4.2k (exactly $4,216) Tntlaxy GDS
Rocket Engineer · EA $9.99 13 92% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Xavier B.
Legend of the Moon 2 $2.99 8 87% 240 $718 (exactly $718) GozipGame
The Great Ocean $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Actrio Studio
Critical Descent $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Endless Abyss Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.