Do I ship it?

Games › Flight › Flight + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Flight game?

Flight + Sci-fi

Of 164 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Flight game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 310 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $390 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 97 developers shipped in the last year and 310 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 310 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Flight + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 164
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $628 → $1.4k → $239 → $1.5k → $299 → $539 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Flight + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 164
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $390 (exactly $390)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 5% $59k (exactly $59,380)
Developers, 2 yr 164
Released games 654
Announced 310
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Flight; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Space Sim, Shooter
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 17,766 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $390, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $59k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. Nearly all of the 77 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 310 games are announced against 97 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Flight with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 10 announced
  3. + Quick-Time EventsFair9 devs · median $657 · 9 announced
  4. + CatsFair6 devs · median $629 · 10 announced
  5. + Life SimPoor odds12 devs · median $70k · 29 announced
  6. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  7. + MiningPoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 13 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 57 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 48 announced
  10. + EconomyPoor odds20 devs · median $15k · 45 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 18 announced
  12. + Cold WarPoor odds10 devs · median $11k · 16 announced

All 132 pairs on the Flight page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ACE COMBAT™ 7: SKIES UNKNOWN 2019 · $83M X4: Foundations 2018 · $38M STAR WARS™: Squadrons 2020 · $30M EVERSPACE™ 2 2023 · $18M SpaceEngine 2019 · EA · $14M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ACE COMBAT™ 7: SKIES UNKNOWN older $59.99 46,235 87% 1.4M $83M (exactly $83,209,130) Bandai Namco Studios Inc.
X4: Foundations older $49.99 25,257 79% 758k $38M (exactly $37,877,923) Egosoft
STAR WARS™: Squadrons older $39.99 25,086 66% 753k $30M (exactly $30,095,674) MOTIVE
EVERSPACE™ 2 older $49.99 12,040 85% 361k $18M (exactly $18,056,388) ROCKFISH Games
SpaceEngine · EA older $29.99 15,826 96% 475k $14M (exactly $14,238,652) Cosmographic Software
Project Wingman older $24.99 18,407 94% 552k $14M (exactly $13,799,728) Sector D2
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
Jump Space · EA $19.99 10,724 85% 322k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,183) Keepsake Games
Nuclear Option · EA older $19.99 10,275 95% 308k $6.2M (exactly $6,161,917) Shockfront Studios
EVERSPACE™ older $19.99 9,809 77% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,882,457) ROCKFISH Games
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Solargene $34.99 777 77% 23k $816k (exactly $815,617) Alexander Semenov
G-Rebels · EA $29.99 254 79% 7.6k $229k (exactly $228,524) Reakktor Studios
Drone Sector · EA $16.99 366 89% 11k $187k (exactly $186,550) Icosphere
Desecrators $14.99 327 96% 9.8k $147k (exactly $147,052) Woodhound
BeastLink · EA $19.99 187 45% 5.6k $112k (exactly $112,144) Grove Street Games
Raiden NOVA | 雷電NOVA | 雷電新星 $29.99 66 72% 2.0k $59k (exactly $59,380) MOSS Co., Ltd.
I Fetch Rocks $15.99 110 94% 3.3k $53k (exactly $52,767) SarumXR

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.