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Should I ship a Flight Sandbox?
Flight + Sandbox
Of 52 developers who shipped a Flight Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 140 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.9k, ×6.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2996 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 140 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.9k (exactly $3,896) |
| Top 25% | $112k (exactly $112,144) |
| Top 5% | $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 52 |
| Released games | 207 |
| Announced | 140 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $12.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Flight, Sandbox; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Simulation, Open World
- Price point
- $12.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.
The top 10 games average 71% positive over 42,579 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 140 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Flight with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Choose Your Own AdventureFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + Quick-Time EventsFair
- + CatsFair
- + Life SimPoor odds
- + TradingPoor odds
- + MiningPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + EconomyPoor odds
- + RTSPoor odds
- + Cold WarPoor odds
Comparable games
The Crew™ 2 2018 · $78M 
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 2024 · $45M 
Stormworks: Build and Rescue 2020 · $41M 
X4: Foundations 2018 · $38M 
Brick Rigs 2023 · $32M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Crew™ 2 | older | $29.99 | 86,533 78% | 2.6M | $78M (exactly $77,853,740) | Ivory Tower |
| | Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 | $69.99 | 21,633 59% | 649k | $45M (exactly $45,422,810) | Asobo Studio | |
| | Stormworks: Build and Rescue | older | $24.99 | 54,649 90% | 1.6M | $41M (exactly $40,970,355) | Geometa |
| | X4: Foundations | older | $49.99 | 25,257 79% | 758k | $38M (exactly $37,877,923) | Egosoft |
| | Brick Rigs | older | $19.99 | 53,749 95% | 1.6M | $32M (exactly $32,233,275) | Fluppisoft GmbH |
 | Transport Fever 2 | older | $39.99 | 26,714 89% | 801k | $32M (exactly $32,048,786) | Urban Games |
 | Trailmakers | older | $24.99 | 33,465 92% | 1.0M | $25M (exactly $25,088,710) | Flashbulb |
 | Besiege | older | $14.99 | 48,045 95% | 1.4M | $22M (exactly $21,605,836) | Spiderling Studios |
 | VTOL VR | older | $29.99 | 19,885 98% | 597k | $18M (exactly $17,890,534) | Boundless Dynamics, LLC |
 | Microsoft Flight Simulator X: Steam Edition | older | $24.99 | 23,349 86% | 700k | $18M (exactly $17,504,745) | Microsoft Game Studios |
 | Aviassembly | · EA | $9.99 | 9,323 96% | 280k | $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) | Jelle Booij |
 | Ostranauts | $19.99 | 3,137 77% | 94k | $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) | Blue Bottle Games | |
 | Lost Skies | $24.99 | 2,470 63% | 74k | $1.9M (exactly $1,851,759) | Bossa Studios | |
 | Starminer | · EA | $29.99 | 1,818 72% | 55k | $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) | CoolAndGoodGames |
 | Ground of Aces | · EA | $29.99 | 1,415 84% | 42k | $1.3M (exactly $1,273,076) | Blindflug Studios AG |
 | Solargene | $34.99 | 777 77% | 23k | $816k (exactly $815,617) | Alexander Semenov | |
 | Approximately Up | $24.99 | 995 93% | 30k | $746k (exactly $745,952) | Approximately Games | |
 | Echoes of Elysium | · EA | $19.99 | 506 61% | 15k | $303k (exactly $303,448) | Loric Games, Inc. |
 | Cabin Crew Life Simulator | · EA | $12.99 | 505 70% | 15k | $197k (exactly $196,798) | SOGA Std |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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