Do I ship it?

GamesFlightFlight + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite Flight game?

Flight + Roguelite

Of 34 developers who shipped a Roguelite Flight game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×463 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 59 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 59 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Flight + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $5.1k → $899 → $2.3k → $299 → $269 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Flight + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $208 (exactly $208)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,581)
Top 5% $291k (exactly $290,854)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 77
Announced 59
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Flight, Roguelite; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 12,647 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $450, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 7 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Flight with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 10 announced
  3. + Quick-Time EventsFair9 devs · median $657 · 9 announced
  4. + CatsFair6 devs · median $629 · 10 announced
  5. + Life SimPoor odds12 devs · median $70k · 29 announced
  6. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  7. + MiningPoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 13 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 57 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 48 announced
  10. + EconomyPoor odds20 devs · median $15k · 45 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 18 announced
  12. + Cold WarPoor odds10 devs · median $11k · 16 announced

All 132 pairs on the Flight page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Jump Space · EA $19.99 10,724 85% 322k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,183) Keepsake Games
EVERSPACE™ older $19.99 9,809 77% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,882,457) ROCKFISH Games
Bomber Crew older $15.99 10,416 88% 312k $5.0M (exactly $4,996,555) Runner Duck
Between the Stars older $29.99 1,965 75% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,767,910) Isolated Games
轮回修仙路 older $16.99 2,945 82% 88k $1.5M (exactly $1,501,066) 烟水寒工作室
Sky Rogue older $19.99 1,059 92% 32k $635k (exactly $635,082) Fractal Phase
Whisker Squadron: Survivor $19.99 485 77% 15k $291k (exactly $290,854) Flippfly LLC
Metal Thunder · EA $10.99 567 76% 17k $187k (exactly $186,940) Dumbbell Games
ROGUE FLIGHT $19.99 279 96% 8.4k $167k (exactly $167,316) Truant Pixel, LLC
Dimensions: Dreadnought Architect · EA older $15.99 184 55% 5.5k $88k (exactly $88,265) Craft Theory
Airships: Lost Flotilla $8.99 290 92% 8.7k $78k (exactly $78,213) David Stark
Raiden NOVA | 雷電NOVA | 雷電新星 $29.99 66 72% 2.0k $59k (exactly $59,380) MOSS Co., Ltd.
Deep Space Exploitation $8.99 131 96% 3.9k $35k (exactly $35,331) JuhrJuhr
FUR Squadron Phoenix $19.99 32 78% 960 $19k (exactly $19,190) Raptor Claw
Catharage $9.99 62 82% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,581) Björn Michalski
Cosmo Tales · EA $19.99 11 81% 330 $6.6k (exactly $6,597) Bohemia Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.