Do I ship it?

GamesFlightFlight + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Flight game?

Flight + Physics

Of 151 developers who shipped a Physics Flight game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 249 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 249 games are announced against 86 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper, while revenue is flat on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 249 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Flight + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 151
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $4.2k → $5.1k → $719 → $899 → $629 → $599 (still earning) → $238 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Flight + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 151
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $418 (exactly $418)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,216)
Top 5% $680k (exactly $680,215)
Developers, 2 yr 151
Released games 486
Announced 249
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Flight, Physics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Open World, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 113,282 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $420, 1 in 4 over $4.2k, 1 in 20 over $680k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 76 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 249 games are announced against 86 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Flight with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 10 announced
  3. + Quick-Time EventsFair9 devs · median $657 · 9 announced
  4. + CatsFair6 devs · median $629 · 10 announced
  5. + Life SimPoor odds12 devs · median $70k · 29 announced
  6. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  7. + MiningPoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 13 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 57 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 48 announced
  10. + EconomyPoor odds20 devs · median $15k · 45 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 18 announced
  12. + Cold WarPoor odds10 devs · median $11k · 16 announced

All 132 pairs on the Flight page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020) 40th Anniversary Edition $59.99 70,073 78% 2.1M $126M (exactly $126,110,378) Asobo Studio
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 $69.99 21,633 59% 649k $45M (exactly $45,422,810) Asobo Studio
Stormworks: Build and Rescue older $24.99 54,649 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $40,970,355) Geometa
Brick Rigs older $19.99 53,749 95% 1.6M $32M (exactly $32,233,275) Fluppisoft GmbH
Trailmakers older $24.99 33,465 92% 1.0M $25M (exactly $25,088,710) Flashbulb
Besiege older $14.99 48,045 95% 1.4M $22M (exactly $21,605,836) Spiderling Studios
VTOL VR older $29.99 19,885 98% 597k $18M (exactly $17,890,534) Boundless Dynamics, LLC
X-Plane 11 older $29.99 19,206 92% 576k $17M (exactly $17,279,638) Laminar Research
X-Plane 12 older $59.99 6,318 86% 190k $11M (exactly $11,370,505) Laminar Research
Nuclear Option · EA older $19.99 10,275 95% 308k $6.2M (exactly $6,161,917) Shockfront Studios
Aviassembly · EA $9.99 9,323 96% 280k $2.8M (exactly $2,794,103) Jelle Booij
Cleared Hot · EA $17.99 3,934 96% 118k $2.1M (exactly $2,123,180) Not Knowing Corporation
Lost Skies $24.99 2,470 63% 74k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,759) Bossa Studios
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Reentry - A Space Flight Simulator $34.99 1,319 97% 40k $1.4M (exactly $1,384,554) Lyra Creative
Ukrainian Fight Drone Simulator (UFDS) - FPV drone simulator $29.99 800 80% 24k $720k (exactly $719,760) SIMTECH SOLUTIONS
Liftoff®: Micro Drones $15.99 1,418 92% 43k $680k (exactly $680,215) LuGus Studios
Firehawk: FPV Drone Shooter $19.99 494 91% 15k $296k (exactly $296,252) TruePlayers

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.