Do I ship it?

GamesFlightFlight + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Flight game?

Flight + Nature

Of 42 developers who shipped a Nature Flight game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 67 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $62k, ×99 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 67 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 67 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Flight + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $3.6k → $4.6k → $1.5k → $386 → $11k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Flight + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $629 (exactly $629)
Top 25% $9.7k (exactly $9,742)
Top 5% $62k (exactly $62,369)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 135
Announced 67
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Flight; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Atmospheric, Family Friendly
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 60% positive over 22,404 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $630, 1 in 4 over $9.7k, 1 in 20 over $62k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 67 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Flight with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 10 announced
  3. + Quick-Time EventsFair9 devs · median $657 · 9 announced
  4. + CatsFair6 devs · median $629 · 10 announced
  5. + Life SimPoor odds12 devs · median $70k · 29 announced
  6. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  7. + MiningPoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 13 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 57 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 48 announced
  10. + EconomyPoor odds20 devs · median $15k · 45 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 18 announced
  12. + Cold WarPoor odds10 devs · median $11k · 16 announced

All 132 pairs on the Flight page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 $69.99 21,633 59% 649k $45M (exactly $45,422,810) Asobo Studio
A Short Hike older $7.99 19,219 99% 577k $4.6M (exactly $4,606,794) adamgryu
AER Memories of Old older $14.99 5,064 86% 152k $2.3M (exactly $2,277,281) Forgotten Key
Flower older $6.99 4,790 79% 144k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,463) thatgamecompany
Fugl · EA older $9.99 588 84% 18k $176k (exactly $176,224) Team Fugl
Feather older $9.99 496 84% 15k $149k (exactly $148,651) Samurai Punk
Lifeslide older $9.99 376 91% 11k $113k (exactly $112,687) Dreamteck
InnerSpace older $19.99 173 63% 5.2k $104k (exactly $103,748) PolyKnight Games
Helicopter Simulator VR 2021 - Rescue Missions older $17.99 157 82% 4.7k $85k (exactly $84,733) Helicopter Simulator
Night Stones $9.99 259 93% 7.8k $78k (exactly $77,622) Advance Nine
FPV Labs - Drone Simulator · EA $19.99 104 67% 3.1k $62k (exactly $62,369) FPVLabs
Sky Oceans: Wings for Hire $24.99 45 64% 1.4k $34k (exactly $33,736) Octeto Studios
Firefly Village $8.99 112 86% 3.4k $30k (exactly $30,206) Josh Koenig Games
True Disc Golf $24.99 32 90% 960 $24k (exactly $23,990) Sportsmanlike Games
Sea Walker Saga · EA $9.99 66 93% 2.0k $20k (exactly $19,780) Antelus Games
Toroa: Skycall $12.99 36 94% 1.1k $14k (exactly $14,029) Atawhai Interactive
Little Wings Deliveries $4.99 87 88% 2.6k $13k (exactly $13,024) SkyBrave, Vort Digital, Jonathan Kihlst… (SkyBrave, Vort Digital, Jonathan Kihlström, Mount West Music)
Mesoké $11.99 30 90% 900 $11k (exactly $10,791) Mystik'art

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.